Mediaite77%
Election Forecaster Says Democrats Could Actually Flip Senate Seat in Texas Because GOP Candidate ‘Is So Awful’ 33%
By Michael Luciano60%
7/30/2026, 5:24:01 PM
BS Summary: This article contains 14 faulty reasoning types, including Availability Heuristic, Composition/Division, and Ad Hominem, with Negativity Bias as the most egregious example at 25.2% saturation with 135 hits. Analysis detected 519 faulty-reasoning hits from 536 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 41.1% and a BS Rank of 33% (15,004 of 22,405 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 67.00% of the article peer group.
This could finally be the year Democrats win a statewide race in Texas in the form of a U.S.
Senate seat, campaign guru Larry Sabato told CNN on Thursday night.
In November, Democratic state Rep.
James Talarico will square off against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton , who is dogged by a great deal of baggage.
The attorney general was indicted on criminal state securities fraud charges in 2015, hit with federal civil fraud charges in 2016, accused by former staff members of taking bribes, impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives, accused of adultery by his wife, and has been accused of abusing his office to help a friend and donor, who reportedly employed Paxton’s mistress as a favor.
His office has also come under fire for cutting a plea deal with a disgraced former lawyer who was charged with repeatedly sexually abusing a young boy from ages eight to 10.
Sabato, who is the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, has offered his “ Sabato’s Crystal Ball ” analysis for years.
He joined Thursday’s OutFront on CNN, where Erin Burnett pointed to a newly released Fox News poll showing Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 48%.
“So, let me ask you about this poll that just came in here while we were talking in the past few minutes from Fox, Larry,” Burnett said.
“The Republican Senate candidate, Ken Paxton, is now trailing the Democrat, James Talarico, in Texas.
Ok, Texas.
This is the first public poll where either candidate has hit the 50% mark.
Ok.
It’s Texas.
It’s an incredible thing to see this.
It’s also the end of July.
Where do you see that race going?”
Sabato replied by noting that for many election cycles, Democrats have expressed optimism about winning a statewide race in Texas, which has not happened since 1994 .
However, Sabato said, this might be the year because “Paxton is so awful”:
I’ve been around a long time.
And since 1994, I’ve gotten call after call virtually every day from Texans in politics on the Democratic side, saying, “This is the year.
We’re finally gonna do it.”
But you know what?
I’m starting to believe it’s actually possible this year, not just because James Talarico is a great candidate, which he is, but Paxton is so awful.
And I’m sorry to use that word.
But, you know, we used to have a word, a flaunter, meaning he’s a sinner who flaunts the sin.
And that pretty much has been the way Paxton has conducted his public career.
A lot of these donors won’t touch him.
Notice, he’s not doing well at all raising money.
It’s because they have family and friends and businesses to protect, and they really don’t want to identify themselves publicly with a candidate who has Paxton’s record.
Paxton defeated Sen.
John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff after President Donald Trump endorsed the attorney general
Watch above via CNN.
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