Overconfidence Bias
bias
Summary: Overestimate personal knowledge or accuracy.
Confidence routinely exceeds actual skill, leading to bold predictions and resistance to corrective feedback.
Pattern prevalence
- Authors: top 3%, bottom 1.9%, overall 2.2%
- Publications: top 6.8%, bottom 5.8%, overall 2.9%
- Articles: top 0%, bottom 0.1%, overall 0.1%
Recent example
And I can 100% say again, having done this for 30 years myself, every alien gets due process.
Uses absolute certainty (“100%,” “every alien”).
Recent articles
Trump Says Iran Has Agreed to No Nuclear Weapons 0%
Newsmax - By AFP teams in Washington, Tehran, Beirut, Jerusalem - 5/31/2026, 12:39 PM
Negativity Bias 38% - Framing Effect 18.6% - Appeal to Emotion 14.9%
Iran's chief negotiator warned the United States is not to be trusted Sunday, saying Tehran would not agree to any deal with Washington unless it fully secures Iranian rights. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf's remarks came as reports emerged that US President Donald Trump had sent a tougher peace proposal back to Iran, and underlined the rift... more
Anti-ICE chaos ERUPTS as governor points blame to 'national extremist groups' 0%
Fox News - 5/31/2026, 12:15 PM
Negativity Bias 26.6% - Appeal to Authority 25% - Hasty Generalization 22.7%
Welcome back. Anti-ICE protesters raging out of control. Tensions boiling over outside the New Jersey detention center as Democratic Governor Mikey Cheryl backs their cause and refuses to point blame. Watch. >> New Jersey law enforcement established a peaceful protected protest zone in the area outside Delaney Hall. We know that people... more
From AP's archives: Remembering boxing icon Muhammad Ali 10 years after his death 0%
Associated Press - 5/31/2026, 11:40 AM
Anecdotal 53.6% - Overconfidence Bias 44.9% - Appeal to Emotion 37.7%
I said last night I had a dream. When I got to Africa, I had one hell of a rumble. I had to beat Tarzan's behind first for claiming to be the king of the jungle. For this fight, I've wrestled with alligators. I've tussled with a whale. I don't handcuff lightning and put thunder in jail. You know I'm bad. I have murdered a rock. I injured... more
Trump eyes balanced budget with anti-fraud CRACKDOWN #shorts #us #news #Trump #us #debt 0%
Fox News - 5/31/2026, 11:30 AM
Overconfidence Bias 35.4% - Begging the Question 35.4% - Appeal to Emotion 34.7%
There have been so many accomplishments. One of them that you didn't even mention, rooting out fraud in our country, which I think has meant so much to the American people. >> we can balance our budget. And JD's doing a great job with his team, and they've caught already hundreds of billions of dollars of fraud. And they haven't even... more
Pete Hegseth said any peace deal with Iran "will be a good deal" #shorts 0%
CBS News - 5/31/2026, 3:27 AM
Appeal to Authority 48.8% - Politically Right Leaning Bias 45% - Confirmation Bias 42.1%
Any deal will be a good deal. And I had a chance to talk to President Trump this morning. He He wanted me to reiterate how patient he is in ensuring that with America undertaking this kind of historic endeavor, any deal will be a good one, a great one, and he's patient in the pursuit of that because of how the implications of how that... more
Trump gives daughter-in-law Lara tour of White House ballroom site: ‘We’re gonna have the inauguration here’ 0%
The Independent - By Graig Graziosi - 5/31/2026, 2:26 AM
Self-Serving Bias 25.3% - Negativity Bias 19.7% - Ad Hominem 13.9%
President Donald Trump sat down for a frictionless interview with his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, where he also gave her a tour of the White House ballroom building site. During the tour, Trump revealed that he plans to hold the next presidential inauguration in his new ballroom. "It's a great facility, and we're going to have the... more
Trump mocks artists getting ‘the yips’ about his Freedom 250 concert and unveils new star performer – himself 0%
The Independent - By Ariana Baio - 5/30/2026, 11:34 PM
Negativity Bias 42.8% - Attempt to Sell a Product or Service 24.5% - Self-Serving Bias 23.4%
President Donald Trump announced Saturday he would bring the “Number One Attraction anywhere in the World” to the Freedom 250 concert series, after several notable musicians backed out of performances: Himself. In a Truth Social post, the president criticized artists, who he said were getting “the yips” about performing at the Great... more
We have to take this more seriously, UFO expert says 0%
Fox News - 5/30/2026, 10:30 AM
Appeal to Emotion 38.7% - Negativity Bias 35.9% - Availability Heuristic 35.6%
We've had repeated instances of something operating in the airspace over restricted nuclear facilities and it's not ours and we don't know whose it is. That alone, just that statement alone deserves inquiry, deserves attention, deserves focus. [music] >> If you have objects in the sky that you cannot identify, that's a problem because it... more
LARRY KUDLOW: Reaganesque and Trumpian optimism 0%
Fox Business - By Larry Kudlow - 5/29/2026, 10:16 PM
Biased Writer Voice 70.2% - Confirmation Bias 62.8% - Post Hoc (False Cause) 50.9%
People may forget that Scott Bessent is probably the strongest wartime Treasury secretary going all the way back, at least to World War II. Through his Economic Fury campaign, he has slowly but surely turned off Iran’s monetary and economic spigots. Not only the blockade of Iranian ports, which has stopped their oil sales and revenues,... more
Federal judge orders Trump's name removed from Kennedy Center, says only Congress can rename it 0%
Fox News - By Louis Casiano - 5/29/2026, 8:10 PM
Self-Serving Bias 24.6% - Negativity Bias 20.3% - Appeal to Emotion 17.7%
A federal judge on Friday ordered that President Donald Trump's name be removed from the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper, an Obama appointee, said the iconic venue cannot be renamed without an act of Congress, ruling that the Kennedy Center Board of Trustees overstepped its "statutory bounds... more