Optimism Bias
bias
Summary: Expect better outcomes than evidence suggests.
People believe they are less at risk and more likely to succeed than peers, encouraging action but downplaying hazards.
Pattern prevalence
- Authors: top 0.9%, bottom 4.3%, overall 3.5%
- Publications: top 7.3%, bottom 9%, overall 3.9%
- Articles: top 14.2%, bottom 4.3%, overall 9.3%
Recent example
He He wanted me to reiterate how patient he is in ensuring that with America undertaking this kind of historic endeavor, any deal will be a good one, a great one, and he's patient in the pursuit of that because of how the implications of how that sorts out.
Repeatedly asserts any deal outcome will be positive
Recent articles
Trump eyes balanced budget with anti-fraud CRACKDOWN #shorts #us #news #Trump #us #debt 0%
Fox News - 5/31/2026, 11:30 AM
Overconfidence Bias 35.4% - Begging the Question 35.4% - Appeal to Emotion 34.7%
There have been so many accomplishments. One of them that you didn't even mention, rooting out fraud in our country, which I think has meant so much to the American people. >> we can balance our budget. And JD's doing a great job with his team, and they've caught already hundreds of billions of dollars of fraud. And they haven't even... more
Pete Hegseth said any peace deal with Iran "will be a good deal" #shorts 0%
CBS News - 5/31/2026, 3:27 AM
Appeal to Authority 48.8% - Politically Right Leaning Bias 45% - Confirmation Bias 42.1%
Any deal will be a good deal. And I had a chance to talk to President Trump this morning. He He wanted me to reiterate how patient he is in ensuring that with America undertaking this kind of historic endeavor, any deal will be a good one, a great one, and he's patient in the pursuit of that because of how the implications of how that... more
WHO chief visits Bunia as Bundibugyo Ebola spreads faster than response 0%
Associated Press - 5/30/2026, 9:07 PM
Ambiguity (Equivocation) 25.9% - Framing Effect 21.4% - Hasty Generalization 19.6%
This outbreak is caused by the Bundibugyo virus for which no licensed vaccine or treatment currently exists. But this is not without hope. Ebola caused by the Bundibugyo virus can be survived with good medical care and some people here in Italy have already recovered. Seeking care early makes a real difference. Under the government's... more
Four more miners in Laos freed from cave, rescuers say 0%
CBS News - 5/30/2026, 5:59 PM
Appeal to Emotion 24.8% - Appeal to Authority 20.5% - Confirmation Bias 20.3%
Rescue workers in Laos have safely evacuated four more minors who have been trapped in a flooded cave for 10 days. Now this video shows the moment the last of those men made it out. The organization Rescue Volunteer for People says on its Facebook page that the water level inside the cave receded to where the trapped men could leave with... more
Exploring the housing market 0%
ABC News - 5/30/2026, 5:49 PM
Ambiguity (Equivocation) 25.4% - Pessimism Bias 17.5% - Appeal to Emotion 17.3%
All right, thinking of buying a house in this economy? Well, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a 9-month high of 6.53% this week. Summer is a hot time to buy. So, what do you do if you're in the market right now? Let's go ahead and bring in Jake Cruemmel, a senior economist over at realtor.com, for some answers.... more
Live Updates: Trump says US-Iran talks are 'proceeding nicely' despite fresh strikes on Iranian targets 0%
Fox News - By Greg Norman-Diamond, Emma Bussey, Danielle Wallace - 5/26/2026, 2:53 PM
Indoctrination 22.1% - Appeal to Emotion 13.1% - Overconfidence Bias 12.7%
President Donald Trump on Monday said negotiations with Iran are “proceeding nicely” and urged multiple Middle Eastern countries to sign onto the Abraham Accords, saying Iran could also eventually join the agreement if a deal is reached with the United States. In a Truth Social post, Trump said it “should be mandatory” for countries... more
Evacuation zone shrinks in Southern California after chemical tank explosion averted, officials say 0%
ABC News - 5/26/2026, 1:56 PM
Ambiguity (Equivocation) 76.7% - Framing Effect 49.8% - Appeal to Emotion 42.7%
This morning, officials say the risk of a major explosion at the aerospace facility in Garden Grove is now off the table, but the emergency has not ended. >> The most catastrophic and worst case scenario was mitigated and resolved. It's not over yet. And I want to reemphasize that it's not over yet. >> Officials have now reduced the... more
Mike Lupica: These Knicks are the real deal 0%
New York Daily News - By Mike Lupica - 5/26/2026, 2:40 AM
Biased Writer Voice 53.9% - Anecdotal 30.3% - Halo Effect 25.4%
This is the month when the new Knicks have turned into the old Knicks, the ones with all the Hall of Famers who won the only two titles the team has ever won. This is the month when the Knicks have rolled an 11 in the postseason the likes of which no NBA postseason has ever seen, when they have gone all of May without losing a game, when... more
What Nvidia's Q1 earnings report says about state of AI race 0%
CBS News - 5/20/2026, 11:38 PM
Cementing its status as the world's most valuable company, Nvidia reported record revenue. In the latest earnings report, Nvidia reported 81.6 billion in revenue, up 85% from a year ago. So, the company is now valued at $5.4 billion. So, let's bring in Britney Win, the Nvidia and chips reporter at Market Watch. Boy, we're talking about a... more
Trump Promotes White House UFC Event 89.5%
NTD - 5/20/2026, 7:15 PM
UFC, that's going to be something UFC event on the South Lawn right there. We're going to build an arena. It's going to hold probably, I would say, 4,000 5,000. The great Dana White is putting it on. You know, we'll get it up to the max. And behind you in the park, the beautiful park, beautiful open piece of land, we're going to have... more