Vox⁠66%

How a super El Niño affects the global climate ⁠39%

By Benjamin Stephen⁠44%

7/30/2026, 2:55:00 PM

BS Summary: This article contains 13 faulty reasoning types, including Biased Writer Voice, Overconfidence Bias, and Negativity Bias, with Appeal to Authority as the most egregious example at 34.3% saturation with 91 hits. Analysis detected 474 faulty-reasoning hits from 265 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 40.1% and a BS Rank of ⁠39% (14,745 of 23,847 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 61.80% of the article peer group.

On June 11, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an El Niño advisory after temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean remained higher than average for several months. 
Declaring an El Niño isn’t out of the ordinary, as they happen in cycles every two to seven years. 
But this one could be extraordinary. 
Some are calling it a “super” or “Godzilla” El Niño, and the NOAA predicts an 81 percent chance that it could develop to a “very strong” level, rivaling the historic and devastating El Niños of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. 
Experts are predicting it will likely reach its peak this winter and into 2027, bringing heat, rainfall, and other potential extreme weather events. 
But even with that foresight and climate models that can confidently predict what might be in store, we still face a test of what could potentially be the strongest El Niño ever recorded and the wild weather that comes with it. 
We spoke with atmospheric scientists and meteorologists to find out how a super El Niño forms, why it changes global climate, and what we should expect in the coming months. 
Read more about El Niño: 
* The latest from NOAA about this El Niño: https://www.noaa.gov/topic-tags/el-nino-la-nina-enso  
* Vox podcast The Gray Area covers the possibility of a “Godzilla El Niño”: https://www.vox.com/podcasts/495653/el-nino-climate-change-global-warming-david-wallace-wells 
* NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ 
* World Meteorological Organization’s seasonal outlook for El Niño heat and rainfall: https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-forecast-intensify-increasing-likelihood-of-extreme-weather  
* The Guardian’s coverage of California’s shark surge: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jul/14/california-sharks-el-nino 
* New York Times article about powerful El Niños of the past: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/21/climate/el-nino-history-famine.html 
Confirmation Bias
11.3%
Anchoring Bias
0%
Availability Heuristic
14.3%
Representativeness Heuristic
0%
Hindsight Bias
0%
Overconfidence Bias
24.2%
Framing Effect
3.4%
Loss Aversion
0%
Status Quo Bias
7.2%
Sunk Cost Effect
0%
Optimism Bias
0%
Pessimism Bias
2.3%
Negativity Bias
15.5%
Self-Serving Bias
0%
Fundamental Attribution Error
0%
Actor-Observer Bias
0%
In-Group Bias
0%
Out-Group Homogeneity Bias
0%
Halo Effect
0%
Horn Effect
0%
Dunning-Kruger Effect
0%
Recency Bias
10.6%
Primacy Effect
4.9%
Blind-Spot Bias
0%
Ad Hominem
0%
Straw Man
0%
Appeal to Authority
34.3%
False Dilemma
0%
Slippery Slope
0%
Circular Reasoning
0%
Hasty Generalization
0%
Red Herring
0%
Bandwagon
14.3%
Appeal to Emotion
0%
Begging the Question
0%
Post Hoc (False Cause)
0%
Tu Quoque
0%
Burden of Proof
0%
Appeal to Nature
0%
Composition/Division
0%
Anecdotal
0%
No True Scotsman
0%
Ambiguity (Equivocation)
0%
Gambler’s Fallacy
0%
Middle Ground
0%
Personal Incredulity
0%
Special Pleading
0%
Genetic Fallacy
0%
Unattributed Quote
0%
Quote-first Misdirection
0%
Biased Writer Voice
24.9%
Indoctrination
0%
Politically Left Leaning Bias
0%
Politically Right Leaning Bias
0%
Attempt to Sell a Product or Service
11.7%

265 words analyzed.

Analysis

Hover over highlighted words in the article to view the associated bias or fallacy analysis.