NTD100%
US Blockade Day 4 Sees Iran Threatens Red Sea Routes as Mullahs ‘Don’t Have Many Good Options’ 77%
4/17/2026, 1:00:05 AM
BS Summary: This video contains 28 faulty reasoning types, including Biased Writer Voice, Optimism Bias, and Out-Group Homogeneity Bias, with In-Group Bias as the most egregious example at 15.7% saturation with 142 hits. Analysis detected 1,758 faulty-reasoning hits from 905 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 69.7% and a BS Rank of 77% (3,906 of 16,813 videos). This video is worse (more manipulative) than 76.80% of the video peer group.
And joining us now is Grant Nam.
He's a retired US Marine colonel and former US diplomat and a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy.
Colonel Nam, good morning.
Thanks for joining us.
I want to get your take on the naval blockade, of course, because it's now entering day four at 10:00 a.m. this morning.
What leverage does Iran have that they still continue to make threats and use rhetoric?
Well, the only leverage they've really got is the ability to really scare shipping companies and the ship owners to think that if they move, they're going to get hit by Iranian missiles, Iranian drones.
It's really intimidation.
Uh but they really have no way of getting through the US blockade.
They're trying to slip things through.
The American surveillance is excellent and they know what they're doing here.
Uh you can tell that this is causing the Iranians considerable concern and they've even gotten the Chinese to sort of agree with them on that.
So it's definitely working and if the Sencom commander uh says it is then I'm glad to take him at his word.
Now your observations on friendly ships being able to pass through.
Uh there has been some traffic.
What are you observing?
Well, there's not much going through at least that goes into or out of Iranian ports.
There's some movement from other ships in the Persian Gulf.
Uh but it still hasn't gotten to where it used to be.
But these things take long.
Take take a little while if they're going to work.
So you have to give it some time.
What in your observation for those few ships that are passing through? uh is it through you know US Navy uh sort of comfort and guarantee like what is what gets that tipping point going where the oil prices can start to regulate?
Well, I think it ultimately um it's going to be that the ship owners think that the the risk does not outweigh the benefits from it and when the price of oil goes up this high this high that it actually getting a ship out actually is very profitable more than it was.
So it's a fairly simple equation here and say this has just started for a few days but it hasn't shaken loose yet but give it some time and also the possibility of peace talks or between the Americans and the Iranians is on the table might happen in a few days.
So I think there is a wait and see approach to all of this being taken but give it a few days and I think it could get pretty interesting in terms of the uh increased movement.
Yes, as this economic pressure ratchets up on the regime, coming back to the table seems like it it's a smarter move.
We have had some guests who said that some of this is cultural as well where you need some sort of face saving gesture.
We we see them though continuing the rhetoric.
So, they've threatened the Red Sea in addition to the straight of Hormuz.
Um, the Saudis are starting to use pipelines to try to divert oil to that other sea option for Saudi Arabia.
Does Iran have the capacity to strike at shipping in the Red Sea?
Uh, it has some capacity.
Say you could use a ballistic missile to try and hit a ship.
That's very hard to do.
Or you could get the Houthis who've been doing Iraq Iran's bidding for a while now have them to launch off rockets, drones, etc. to interdict the shipping as we saw in the last couple years.
Uh the Houthis, however, are practical and it's not clear how much they would actually do for the Iranians.
They know that the Americans didn't really hit them very hard when the they were trying to get get the the Red Sea open, get shipping through there, and if America were to apply some real force, the Houthis would suffer uh very badly.
And in the past, they've done business with with Egypt, with Saudi Arabia, they'll do what's in their interest.
But nonetheless, when Iran talks about closing the Red Sea off, that does get some attention.
And you it's been reported that the Saudis are concerned about that as well because they don't have many options uh good options if the Red Sea and the Babel Mandab Straight at the the bottom end of it were to be closed.
So that is a possibility.
But at the same time, the Houthis are the are probably the the the main player here.
And as I said, they didn't get hit anywhere near like they could have been the last time the Americans were were going after them.
Got it.
So the Iranian threat on the Red Sea more comes from proxies than from their own capacity within their native borders.
And I I want to go back to the blockade.
You mentioned the Chinese.
Iran definitely feeling the pressure as we go into day four.
We saw 10 ships were told to return to port.
Um, what options do the Iranians, the regime have if they, you know, want to remain in power and be the governing body that ...
Analysis
Hover over highlighted words in the article to view the associated bias or fallacy analysis.