Vox52%

The next Strait of Hormuz 79%

By Caitlin Dewey96%

7/15/2026, 9:00:00 PM

BS Summary: This article contains 25 faulty reasoning types, including Attempt to Sell a Product or Service, Biased Writer Voice, and Framing Effect, with Negativity Bias as the most egregious example at 21.9% saturation with 112 hits. Analysis detected 1,230 faulty-reasoning hits from 511 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 71% and a BS Rank of 79% (3,678 of 16,805 articles). This article is worse (more manipulative) than 78.10% of the article peer group.

This story appeared in&nbsp;Today, Explained,&nbsp;a daily newsletter that helps you understand the most compelling news and stories of the day. <a href="https://www.vox.com/today-explained-newsletter" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Subscribe here</a>. 
If I had a nickel for every time President Donald Trump backtracked or changed course on Iran, I’d have…well, at least enough money for a gallon of <a href="https://gasprices.aaa.com/">$3.89 gas</a>. 
Trump has threatened attacks and postponed them. 
He’s praised Iran’s leaders in one breath and panned them as “scum” in the next. 
The latest about-face played out Tuesday morning, when Trump canceled a controversial, short-lived plan to charge fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway at the heart of this whole mess. 
It’s incredibly easy to get lost in all the back-and-forth. 
(Even as I write this, the United States is still sanctioning Iranian oil sales, preventing ships <a href="https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2077382758486200757? 
s=20">from docking</a> at Iranian ports, and bombarding the country with <a href="https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2077338021733478617? 
s=20">missile strikes</a>.) 
But if you zoom out far enough, a clear narrative <em>does</em> emerge: Whatever the war might’ve been about in the beginning, it’s now very clearly <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/494968/iran-us-strait-hormuz">a <em>strait</em>-up tug-of-war for control of the Strait of Hormuz</a>. 
The strait is the world’s most important energy chokepoint: A fifth of the world’s oil and gas normally passes through it. 
And now that Iran has shown it can shut down that traffic, whoever controls the strait will gain both a major potential revenue source and a powerful economic weapon. 
These waterways run the world &nbsp; 
The Strait of Hormuz is what’s known as a maritime chokepoint<em>: </em>a narrow waterway that handles an outsized share of global trade. 
Your daily life is almost definitely filled with and fueled by goods that pass through these channels. 
But you may never have occasion to consciously think about them until something  like a war or <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/24/how-a-container-ship-blocked-the-suez-canal-visual-guide">a stuck container ship</a>  gets in the way. 
Here are a few of the other heavyweights (click to see <a href="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ZvwoG/2/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">a larger version here</a>): 
One link for later 
➨&nbsp;Health trackers offer a ton of data. 
And much of it is only good for raising your stress! 
Instead of obsessing over metrics like your daily resting heart rate or HRV, <a href="https://www.vox.com/good-medicine-newsletter/494789/apple-watch-oura-ring-fitbit-health-tracker-data">focus on the long-term trends</a>. 
And don’t forget to pay attention to how you<em> actually</em> feel, as opposed to deferring to what your wearable says. 
Before you go… 
* Did you know…that <a href="https://www.vox.com/advice/495193/singing-lamentation-grief-despair">singing with a group of other people</a> raises your oxytocin levels? 
This experiment was conducted in a choir rehearsal, but I’m personally and self-servingly gonna assume it applies to karaoke, as well. 
* Today’s trivia: Caribbean and Indian cooking traditions combined to yield what delicious wrap-style sandwich? 
(You can find this and other brain puzzles in Vox’s daily crossword. 
Look for the answer in tomorrow’s edition.) 
* Yesterday’s trivia: Yesterday we asked you for the bizarre human nickname that San Franciscans give their heavy summer fog. 
That would be Karl, a reference to the 2003 film <em>Big Fish</em>. 
The gag <a href="https://www.kqed.org/news/11682057/how-the-bay-areas-fog-came-to-be-named-karl">started on social media</a>. 
Confirmation Bias
7%
Anchoring Bias
0%
Availability Heuristic
8.6%
Representativeness Heuristic
0%
Hindsight Bias
0%
Overconfidence Bias
14.9%
Framing Effect
16.6%
Loss Aversion
0%
Status Quo Bias
1.4%
Sunk Cost Effect
0%
Optimism Bias
3.3%
Pessimism Bias
5.7%
Negativity Bias
21.9%
Self-Serving Bias
4.1%
Fundamental Attribution Error
0%
Actor-Observer Bias
3.9%
In-Group Bias
0%
Out-Group Homogeneity Bias
0%
Halo Effect
0%
Horn Effect
0%
Dunning-Kruger Effect
0%
Recency Bias
12.5%
Primacy Effect
0%
Blind-Spot Bias
0%
Ad Hominem
0%
Straw Man
0%
Appeal to Authority
4.1%
False Dilemma
11%
Slippery Slope
0%
Circular Reasoning
0%
Hasty Generalization
16.4%
Red Herring
0%
Bandwagon
0%
Appeal to Emotion
4.3%
Begging the Question
7%
Post Hoc (False Cause)
5.7%
Tu Quoque
0%
Burden of Proof
0%
Appeal to Nature
0%
Composition/Division
4.3%
Anecdotal
11.4%
No True Scotsman
0%
Ambiguity (Equivocation)
6.7%
Gambler’s Fallacy
0%
Middle Ground
0%
Personal Incredulity
0%
Special Pleading
0%
Genetic Fallacy
0%
Unattributed Quote
15.9%
Quote-first Misdirection
6.1%
Biased Writer Voice
19.6%
Indoctrination
7.6%
Politically Left Leaning Bias
0%
Politically Right Leaning Bias
0%
Attempt to Sell a Product or Service
20.7%

511 words analyzed.

Analysis

Hover over highlighted words in the article to view the associated bias or fallacy analysis.