Tropical Storm Bertha forms in the Gulf near Florida. Here’s what Houston can expect 20%
By Justin Ballard13%
7/21/2026, 12:02:12 AM
BS Summary: This article contains 17 faulty reasoning types, including Negativity Bias, False Dilemma, and Availability Heuristic, with Overconfidence Bias as the most egregious example at 16.9% saturation with 97 hits. Analysis detected 592 faulty-reasoning hits from 574 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 34.7% and a BS Rank of 20% (15,391 of 19,025 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 80.90% of the article peer group.
Tropical Storm Bertha formed Monday in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, becoming the Atlantic’s second named storm of the 2026 hurricane season as it begins a slow trek toward the western Gulf Coast.
Bertha developed from Tropical Depression Two, which formed Sunday, after satellite imagery and hurricane air reconnaissance data confirmed a better-defined circulation and increasing thunderstorm bands near its center.
While the current forecast keeps the strongest effects east of Texas, considerable uncertainty remains over how much of the storm ultimately reaches Southeast Texas later this week.
As of 7 p.m.
Monday, the rotating center of Bertha was about 110 miles south of Panama City in the Florida Panhandle, packing maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.
The storm was moving west-northwest at 3 mph.
Where is Tropical Storm Bertha going next?
Bertha is expected to remain a relatively weak tropical storm while gradually turning westward along the northern Gulf Coast over the next several days.
The latest forecast brings the center near southeastern Louisiana by midweek before continuing west toward Southeast Texas later this week.
However, confidence naturally decreases farther into the forecast, and relatively small changes in the storm’s track could produce significantly different outcomes for Texas.
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA: What are the best-case, worst-case and most likely scenarios for Texas?
The National Hurricane Center expects Bertha to peak with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph before increasing northeasterly wind shear begins pulling thunderstorms away from the storm’s center, causing it to weaken.
Some forecast guidance even suggests the circulation could dissipate before reaching Texas if it spends more time over land.
For now, the greatest uncertainty isn’t whether Bertha strengthens further.
It’s exactly where the center tracks after reaching the northern Gulf Coast.
What could Bertha mean for Texas?
It’s still too early to pinpoint specific weather hazards for Southeast Texas.
Regardless of Bertha’s eventual track, Texans along the coast should expect increasing surf, dangerous rip currents and at least some coastal water level rise later this week.
It’s still unclear how much of the storm’s heavier rainfall and stronger winds ultimately reach the Houston area.
Another wrinkle is Bertha’s expected structure.
Increasing wind shear is expected to keep the bulk of the rain and strongest winds south of the storm’s center, meaning relatively small shifts in the track could have an outsized effect on where the greatest storm threats occur.
The forecast should come into much sharper focus over the next day or two as Bertha begins its westward turn.
Bertha forms as El Niño shapes hurricane season
Bertha is only the second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, reflecting the unusually hostile environment that has developed across much of the basin.
A strengthening El Niño has increased wind shear — a difference in wind speed or direction with altitude that disrupts tropical storms — across the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
That same wind shear is expected to limit Bertha’s strengthening later this week, with the current forecast keeping the storm below hurricane intensity.
While Bertha is unlikely to become a particularly strong tropical storm, it serves as another reminder that even weaker systems can produce dangerous flooding rainfall, rough surf and coastal impacts depending on their track.
We’ll continue updating this forecast as Bertha moves west and confidence grows in where the greatest hazards are most likely to occur.
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