Tampa Bay Times23%
Hurricane forecasters watch 2 potential systems. 1 is off Florida’s coast 14%
By Michaela Mulligan11%
7/15/2026, 2:25:48 PM
BS Summary: This article contains 20 faulty reasoning types, including Appeal to Authority, Indoctrination, and Availability Heuristic, with Negativity Bias as the most egregious example at 13.2% saturation with 76 hits. Analysis detected 748 faulty-reasoning hits from 574 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 30.4% and a BS Rank of 14% (13,961 of 16,190 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 86.20% of the article peer group.
The National Hurricane Center is eyeing a spot off Florida’s Gulf Coast with a low probability of becoming a tropical system.
The blob is not likely to become much of anything, but it could bring some much-needed rain to drought-stricken Tampa Bay.
Forecasters said Wednesday that an area of low pressure could form this weekend in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and possibly develop as it slowly moves northeast over the Gulf and near the southeastern U.S. next week.
The system had a 20% chance of forming over the next seven days as of Wednesday afternoon, forecasters said.
“Nothing to worry about in terms of a major system,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for Tampa Bay 28, wrote Wednesday morning on Facebook .
The system could bring a beneficial boost of rain, Phillips said.
A forecast from the National Weather Service in Ruskin said that signs continue to show increased rain chances this weekend and into early next week.
The rainfall likely won’t be a drought buster, but could be “substantial,” wrote Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist for WFLA.
Heavier rain will likely stay over the Gulf, but Florida’s west coast can expect on-and-off showers.
A map posted by Berardelli showed portions of Tampa Bay could receive up to 4 inches of rain over the next week.
The weather service was more conservative in its rainfall estimates, calling for up to an inch of rain with pockets of higher totals.
However, there is a 10% chance that up to 6 inches of rain could fall on coastal areas of Tampa Bay.
The weather service said that localized flooding is possible, should the unlikelier scenario pan out.
On Wednesday afternoon, forecasters began watching another potential spot off the coast of Africa.
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms has a 10% chance of development over the next week as it moves northwest.
The hurricane center said the system is likely to move into an area that could disrupt development.
The hurricane season has been quiet, with just one named storm — Tropical Storm Arthur — so far.
The next named storm on the list is Bertha.
Researchers from Colorado State University further downgraded their hurricane season forecast last week, calling for fewer tropical storms than average.
The university had already reduced its expectations last month.
Now, researchers predict nine named storms, of which four will become hurricanes and one will become a major hurricane.
If the forecast holds, it would be one of the weakest seasons this century.
The forecast is due largely to a robust El Niño that is likely to become even stronger later this season.
The weather pattern typically leads to fewer storms during the Atlantic hurricane season because it creates increased wind shear that can tear up budding storms.
• • • The 2026 hurricane season is here.
Here’s what the forecasts say What is a ‘super El Niño’?
And what does it mean for hurricanes in Florida?
What to know about river flooding in Tampa Bay this hurricane season Hurricane forecasts are overwhelming.
Here’s how to read them What should you pack in your storm kit?
Here’s where to start Get Times storm alerts on all your devices How Tampa Bay seniors, others can get help evacuating How to handle fires, tree limbs and other hazards after a storm Here are the lessons you learned from Tampa Bay’s historic 2024 hurricane season
Analysis
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