Justice Dept. confirms it isn’t investigating Anna Paulina Luna prediction market allegation 46%

By Jacob Ogles69%

8/3/2026, 4:06:09 PM

BS Summary: This article contains 24 faulty reasoning types, including Self-Serving Bias, Framing Effect, and Ad Hominem, with Negativity Bias as the most egregious example at 27.6% saturation with 119 hits. Analysis detected 947 faulty-reasoning hits from 431 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 40.3% and a BS Rank of 46% (16,632 of 30,584 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 54.40% of the article peer group.

U.S. 
Rep. 
Anna Paulina Luna’s attorneys received confirmation in writing the Justice Department never opened an investigation involving her. 
The Pinellas Republican slammed reporting in The Wall Street Journal suggesting federal regulators were investigating allegations she shared advance knowledge of President Donald Trump’s 2024 running-mate selection to those betting on predictions markets. 
Associate Deputy Attorney General Diego Pestana made clear in a letter to Luna’s attorney, Charlies Spies , the Congresswoman is not the target of any investigation, nor is one pending. 
“I can confirm that the Department at no point had an open investigation into allegations that Rep. 
Luna engaged in criminal conduct, including allegations about insider trading in prediction markets. 
Further, the Department never received a referral based on those same allegations from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC),” Pestana wrote. 
“It is important to note that any criminal referrals from the CFTC would be sent to the Department, including to one of its U.S. 
Attorney’s Offices. 
In the instance of Rep. 
Luna, no such referral was made. 
Thus, the Department never had an open investigation in this matter.” 
A Wall Street Journal report published last month alleged Luna told associates during Summer 2024 that she knew Trump would select JD Vance as Vice President. 
According to the report, Luna passed the information to conservative influencer Rogan O’Handley , who placed a winning wager on the prediction market Polymarket . 
The report fueled an attack from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ( DCCC ) alleging Luna engaged in “self-serving politics” and was “helping herself and her Washington insider allies cash in.” 
Importantly, the Journal always reported the matter was part of a larger CFTC investigation was into prediction market betting among Washington insiders, not Luna specifically. 
But Luna said the direct inference of her involvement was irresponsible. 
“This disgusting attempt to politically smear me fell flat on its face because it was based on lies. 
I was never under investigation and The Wall Street Journal reported false information based on one ‘anonymous source’ and then cherry picked my quote to spin their own fake narrative,” Luna posted on X. 
“That’s not journalism that’s a political hit job. 
The person who made these false allegations has now been referred for criminal investigation because making false accusations to a federal agency is a crime. 
Any and all outlets who reported this fake story will be forced to retract and take down. 
We have already sent one cease and desist, more incoming if these outlets don’t correct their false reporting.” 
Article reasoning-pattern comparisonThis article: 11.8%Jacob Ogles: 4.3%Florida Politics: 1.7%Confirmation Bias11.8%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.7%Florida Politics: 0.6%Anchoring Bias0.0%This article: 5.8%Jacob Ogles: 2.3%Florida Politics: 1.1%Availability Heuristic5.8%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 1.0%Florida Politics: 0.8%Representativeness Heuristic0.0%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.7%Florida Politics: 0.1%Hindsight Bias0.0%This article: 4.2%Jacob Ogles: 1.6%Florida Politics: 1.0%Overconfidence Bias4.2%This article: 13.5%Jacob Ogles: 8.6%Florida Politics: 4.0%Framing Effect13.5%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.4%Loss Aversion0.0%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.5%Status Quo Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 1.8%Florida Politics: 0.3%Sunk Cost Effect0.0%This article: 3.9%Jacob Ogles: 1.4%Florida Politics: 2.6%Optimism Bias3.9%This article: 2.6%Jacob Ogles: 0.8%Florida Politics: 0.8%Pessimism Bias2.6%This article: 27.6%Jacob Ogles: 6.5%Florida Politics: 4.3%Negativity Bias27.6%This article: 17.9%Jacob Ogles: 4.5%Florida Politics: 3.2%Self-Serving Bias17.9%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 1.6%Florida Politics: 0.6%Fundamental Attribution Error0.0%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.1%Actor-Observer Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 1.0%Florida Politics: 1.3%In-Group Bias0.0%This article: 7.2%Jacob Ogles: 1.6%Florida Politics: 0.4%Out-Group Homogeneity Bias7.2%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.2%Florida Politics: 2.6%Halo Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.1%Horn Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.0%Dunning-Kruger Effect0.0%This article: 6.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.4%Florida Politics: 0.7%Recency Bias6.0%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 1.1%Florida Politics: 0.3%Primacy Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.0%Blind-Spot Bias0.0%This article: 13.2%Jacob Ogles: 3.9%Florida Politics: 1.0%Ad Hominem13.2%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.5%Florida Politics: 0.2%Straw Man0.0%This article: 12.8%Jacob Ogles: 2.3%Florida Politics: 3.4%Appeal to Authority12.8%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 1.3%Florida Politics: 0.8%False Dilemma0.0%This article: 3.9%Jacob Ogles: 0.2%Florida Politics: 0.4%Slippery Slope3.9%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.1%Circular Reasoning0.0%This article: 7.9%Jacob Ogles: 3.5%Florida Politics: 2.3%Hasty Generalization7.9%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.6%Florida Politics: 0.2%Red Herring0.0%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 1.1%Florida Politics: 1.0%Bandwagon0.0%This article: 11.4%Jacob Ogles: 9.2%Florida Politics: 3.5%Appeal to Emotion11.4%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.7%Florida Politics: 0.5%Begging the Question0.0%This article: 11.6%Jacob Ogles: 3.5%Florida Politics: 1.0%Post Hoc (False Cause)11.6%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.4%Florida Politics: 0.1%Tu Quoque0.0%This article: 3.9%Jacob Ogles: 0.2%Florida Politics: 0.3%Burden of Proof3.9%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.2%Appeal to Nature0.0%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.2%Composition/Division0.0%This article: 6.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.7%Florida Politics: 0.7%Anecdotal6.0%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.0%No True Scotsman0.0%This article: 10.4%Jacob Ogles: 1.3%Florida Politics: 0.7%Ambiguity (Equivocation)10.4%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.0%Gambler’s Fallacy0.0%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.0%Middle Ground0.0%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.1%Personal Incredulity0.0%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.1%Special Pleading0.0%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 0.6%Florida Politics: 0.2%Genetic Fallacy0.0%This article: 6.5%Jacob Ogles: 3.1%Florida Politics: 0.8%Unattributed Quote6.5%This article: 7.7%Jacob Ogles: 1.3%Florida Politics: 0.6%Quote-first Misdirection7.7%This article: 11.8%Jacob Ogles: 5.2%Florida Politics: 3.4%Biased Writer Voice11.8%This article: 7.9%Jacob Ogles: 4.4%Florida Politics: 1.0%Indoctrination7.9%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 2.4%Florida Politics: 0.3%Politically Left Leaning Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jacob Ogles: 2.8%Florida Politics: 0.9%Politically Right Leaning Bias0.0%This article: 4.2%Jacob Ogles: 0.3%Florida Politics: 0.6%Attempt to Sell a Product or S…4.2%

431 words analyzed.

Speakers

5speakers91%attributed speech39writer words
Selected voice

Anna Paulina Luna

100%flagged-word coverage
131 attributed words33% of attributed speech64% writer coverage
0%15.0%30.0%Biased Writer Voice+26.0 ptsWriter: 0.0%Anna Paulina Luna: 26.0%26.0%Indoctrination+26.0 ptsWriter: 0.0%Anna Paulina Luna: 26.0%26.0%Unattributed Quote+21.4 ptsWriter: 0.0%Anna Paulina Luna: 21.4%21.4%Attempt to Sell a Product +13.7 ptsWriter: 0.0%Anna Paulina Luna: 13.7%13.7%Quote-first Misdirection+6.1 ptsWriter: 0.0%Anna Paulina Luna: 6.1%6.1%

Attribution is sentence-level. Pattern percentages are calculated only from words assigned to that voice.

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Analysis

Hover over highlighted words in the article to view the associated bias or fallacy analysis.