Florida Politics70%
Poll: Ashley Litwin Diego close behind Lucia Báez-Geller in HD 106 Primary 45%
By Jesse Scheckner34%
7/22/2026, 10:17:08 PM
BS Summary: This article contains 23 faulty reasoning types, including Negativity Bias, Anecdotal, and Halo Effect, with Confirmation Bias as the most egregious example at 20.2% saturation with 114 hits. Analysis detected 1,083 faulty-reasoning hits from 563 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 48.1% and a BS Rank of 45% (11,049 of 20,062 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 55.10% of the article peer group.
Ashley Litwin Diego is within striking distance of fellow Democrat Lucia Báez-Geller heading into the Primary home stretch for House District 106, new internal polling shows.
A survey this month by Plantation-based MDW Communications , which is working for Litwin Diego, found she and Báez-Geller, a former Miami-Dade School Board member, have identical support — 39.4% — among voters who received information about the candidates provided by Litwin Diego’s camp.
MDW didn’t share the information given or what the candidates’ pre-information numbers were.
Litwin Diego, a lawyer, also saw a net favorability of plus-41 percentage points — a “remarkable” finding, MDW noted, considering Litwin Diego is a first-time candidate who was “virtually unknown a year ago.”
“Ashley Litwin Diego has the momentum in this race,” an MDW memo said.
“While Báez-Geller is slightly better known as a previous officeholder who has run multiple times, Ashley Litwin Diego’s story and background as a political outsider resonates with voters who are fed up with the status quo.”
About 21.1% of voters likely to cast ballots in the Aug.
18 Primary said they remained undecided in the contest.
Image via MDW Communications.
Data from the poll, which used a 252-voter sample and had a 6.6-point margin of error at the 95% confidence level, comes as Báez-Geller and Litwin Diego continue to outraise the incumbent Republican in the race, Rep.
Fabián Basabe , whom a jury last week found liable for sexually harassing and defaming two former House employees.
Since launching her campaign last October, Litwin Diego has raised nearly $261,000 through her campaign account and political committee , including $55,000 in self-loans that are fully refundable if unspent.
She had about $68,000 left heading into mid-July after active spending, including a five-figure ad buy her campaign announced this month.
Báez-Geller, meanwhile, amassed more than $324,000 since filing for the race a year ago.
Of that, $250,000 was self-loaned.
She had about $134,000 remaining by July 10.
Basabe, who is now seeking a third term, reported raising nearly $140,000 since winning re-election in 2024 between his campaign account and political committee .
He reported $16,000 in self-loans and, notably, $140,000 in in-kind aid, mostly from the Florida House Republican Campaign Committee for phone banking and consulting expenses.
He had just over $18,000 in cash by the last reporting deadline.
HD 106 , which covers a coastal strip of Miami-Dade between Miami Beach and Aventura, remains among Florida’s most flippable districts, having gone to President Donald Trump by 9 percentage points in 2024 and to former President Joe Biden four years earlier by 10 points, according to MCI Maps .
Basabe, a former reality TV personality and socialite, defeated former Bay Harbor Islands Mayor Jordan Leonard in 2022 by less than a percentage point to succeed term-limited Democratic Rep.
Joe Geller — who has since replaced Báez-Geller, no relation, on the Miami-Dade School Board — in HD 106.
He won re-election by a 4-point margin two years later.
Last week, Basabe was found liable in a civil suit brought by a former aide, the aide’s mother and a former intern and was ordered to pay them $450,000 in damages.
A separate suit the plaintiffs brought against the House, which they accuse of insufficiently investigating their claims against Basabe, remains pending.
The General Election is Nov.
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Analysis
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