Trump’s hot streak appears over as a slew of election picks fail him ^37.8%

The Independent - By Eric Garcia - 7/2/2026, 8:37 PM

Negativity Bias 28.6% - Biased Writer Voice 24.3% - Hindsight Bias 15.8%

On Wednesday, Fox News dropped polls out of a host of states, including for the governor’s races in Iowa and Georgia. The numbers should not inspire confidence for Republicans in states Trump won in 2024, particularly Iowa, which he turned from a perpetual swing state to blood red in the span of a decade. In Georgia, which is becoming... more

Mamdani beat Hakeem Jeffries and is the new king of New York – it will have effects beyond the Empire State ^68.9%

The Independent - By Eric Garcia - 6/24/2026, 12:10 PM

Biased Writer Voice 68.9% - Negativity Bias 27% - Post Hoc (False Cause) 26.5%

Last year, when President Donald Trump canceled congestion pricing in New York City, the White House posted a mock-up TIME cover of him with a crown with the label “Long Live the King.” It turns out that there was a new king of New York who was a product of Queens. But it was not the president. Rather, Astoria’s Zohran Mamdani would be... more

Trump-endorsed Ken Paxton defeats four-term incumbent John Cornyn and puts Texas in play for Democrats ^46.1%

The Independent - By Eric Garcia - 5/27/2026, 1:35 AM

Negativity Bias 34.4% - Biased Writer Voice 30.3% - Post Hoc (False Cause) 17.6%

President Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate, Ken Paxton, defeated four-term incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the runoff for the Republican primary on Tuesday evening. Paxton, the scandal-marred ultra-MAGA attorney general of Texas, easily dispatched Cornyn, 74, in a race that had turned intensely personal. Trump did not weigh in on the... more

AOC plays coy on White House run as polling has her neck and neck with Kamala and she storms into Shapiro territory ^4.9%

The Independent - By Eric Garcia - 5/15/2026, 8:49 PM

Biased Writer Voice 17.7% - Confirmation Bias 9.8% - Anecdotal 9.6%

While most Democrats are focused on the 2026 midterms and winning back the House of Representatives and maybe even the Senate, whispers have begun about the party’s plan to win back the White House in two years. And so far, nobody has sparked as much 2028 intrigue about next steps as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. This week, a survey... more

Trump shooting attempt puts heat on Mike Johnson and House Republicans to fund DHS — now ^81.4%

The Independent - By Eric Garcia - 4/27/2026, 7:54 PM

Biased Writer Voice 63.4% - Negativity Bias 51.6% - Ad Hominem 15.6%

Washington is still reeling from Saturday, when a gunman opened fire on the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. The coming weeks will inevitably create a political tit-for-tat. Republicans have begun to point the finger at Democrats, with some blaming House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries for vowing, “Maximum warfare all the time,” even... more

The history of violence against President Donald Trump ^32.7%

The Independent - By Eric Garcia - 4/26/2026, 8:03 PM

Negativity Bias 20.6% - Unattributed Quote 14% - Confirmation Bias 12.4%

On Saturday evening, a gunman opened fire at the Washington Hilton just minutes after President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and the rest of the dais at the White House Correspondents' Dinner had taken their seats. Within seconds of hearing the "pop-pop-pop-pop-pop," everyone ducked, assuming the absolute worst. Immediately,... more

White House Correspondents’ Dinner suspect Cole Allen sent anti-Trump manifesto to family before opening fire ^30%

The Independent - By Eric Garcia - 4/26/2026, 4:26 PM

Negativity Bias 18.8% - Hasty Generalization 17.3% - Confirmation Bias 16.9%

The suspected shooter at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner sent a manifesto critical of President Donald Trump to his family before he allegedly opened fire at the Washington Hilton, The New York Post reports. Authorities identified the shooter as 31-year-old Cole Allen, a teacher from Torrance, California. Allen’s brother notified... more

How RFK Jr.’s latest anti-vaccine move harms autistic Americans ^0%

MS NOW - By Eric Garcia - 11/24/2025, 9:54 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated its website last week to say that “the claim ‘vaccines do not cause autism’ is not an evidence-based claim because studies have not ruled out the possibility that infant vaccines cause autism. Studies supporting a link have been ignored by health authorities.” Health and Human... more