4 takeaways from Tuesday's primary night in half a dozen states ^38.7%

NPR - By Domenico Montanaro - 5/20/2026, 9:00 AM

Biased Writer Voice 36.3% - Appeal to Authority 15.8% - Framing Effect 13.4%

President Trump got more wins in Republican primaries on Tuesday, most notably in Kentucky. There, Rep. Thomas Massie lost to a Trump-backed candidate after the president and his allies blitzed Massie with tens of millions in ads. In fact, this was the most expensive House primary in history with $33 million total spent on TV ads and a... more

National mood is against Republicans, but redistricting could help prop them up ^68.3%

NPR - By Domenico Montanaro - 5/9/2026, 9:00 AM

Negativity Bias 43.1% - Biased Writer Voice 35.5% - Ambiguity (Equivocation) 34.8%

There's a dichotomy shaping up in this midterm election year. The national political landscape could hardly look worse for President Trump and Republicans. At the same time, the GOP is suddenly resurgent in the redistricting fight, getting significant wins this week in Virginia and Tennessee that could soften the blow they might have... more

2026 Senate races to watch: From most likely to flip to Democratic long shots ^82.4%

NPR - By Domenico Montanaro - 5/2/2026, 9:00 AM

Ambiguity (Equivocation) 10.7% - Negativity Bias 10.6% - Appeal to Emotion 9.7%

The top Senate races to watch in the midterms Democrats could have a narrow path to winning the Senate, with these specific states on the table. Stay up to date with our Politics newsletter, sent weekly. more

Takeaways from Trump's tough week, as war and gas prices take a toll ^75.1%

NPR - By Domenico Montanaro - 4/3/2026, 9:00 AM

Negativity Bias 39.2% - Biased Writer Voice 23.3% - Post Hoc (False Cause) 20.2%

From the courts and the firing of his attorney general to tariffs, gas prices and the war in Iran, this week highlighted multiple stressors that are putting significant political pressure on President Trump in this second term. Trump was already at a low point coming into this week, and he's hit a new one — a job approval rating at 39%... more

As birthright citizenship goes to Supreme Court, here's how Americans feel about it ^13.2%

NPR - By Domenico Montanaro - 3/30/2026, 9:00 AM

Negativity Bias 24.6% - Hasty Generalization 13.1% - Framing Effect 12.3%

People participate in a protest outside the U.S. Supreme Court on May 15, 2025, over President Trump's move to end birthright citizenship. The Supreme Court will hear arguments Wednesday on whether all children born in the United States can continue to automatically receive citizenship. The decision, not expected for months, could... more

The longer the Iran war goes, the worse it could be for Trump. Just look at history ^77.4%

NPR - By Domenico Montanaro - 3/19/2026, 9:00 AM

The war in Iran continues with no clear end in sight. President Trump has declared, "We won," but has also indicated the U.S. could be in the fight for a while. How long exactly this conflict will last is anybody's guess, but there has been no "rally-'round-the-flag" effect for the president with this war, and the longer it goes on, the... more

5 glaring warning signs for Republicans in this year's midterm elections ^61.3%

NPR - By Domenico Montanaro - 2/9/2026, 10:00 AM

Times Square's digital screens have nothing on the glaring warning signs for Republicans ahead of these upcoming midterm elections. President Trump, his policies and actions are unpopular. The GOP continues to lose special elections. Republicans are retiring at faster rates than Democrats. And people are saying they'd rather Democrats... more