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Congress fears another federal government shutdown could be looming. Here's why. 28%
By Mark Ballard0%
7/18/2026, 10:05:00 AM
BS Summary: This article contains 23 faulty reasoning types, including Framing Effect, Unattributed Quote, and Fundamental Attribution Error, with Negativity Bias as the most egregious example at 19.3% saturation with 151 hits. Analysis detected 1,296 faulty-reasoning hits from 784 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 39% and a BS Rank of 28% (12,752 of 17,596 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 72.50% of the article peer group.
WASHINGTON — Last month in the Senate chamber, then at a couple of committee hearings, on a clowder of right-wing shows, and even while campaigning in New Hampshire for a GOP senate candidate, U.S.
Sen.
John Kennedy predicted yet another federal government shutdown on Oct. 1 — this time only four weeks before voters decide which party controls the House and Senate in 2027.
But the atmosphere has changed as members of Congress remain divided and Republicans have trouble rallying enough members to back “must-pass” legislation without help from Democrats.
The House Appropriations committee has approved all 12 bills that authorize spending by government agencies for the fiscal year that begins Oct.
1.
Only three have cleared the House chamber — and one of those took some parliamentary razzle-dazzle to get passed after conservatives had earlier blocked a procedural step.
The Senate hasn't yet agreed on what the total spending — called top line numbers — should be in the three bills, much less assign what amounts should go to which programs.
If Congress fails to approve all 12 bills, or in the alternative, a resolution to continue operations after Oct. 1, then government shuts down, services are curtailed, most employees are temporarily furloughed and essential workers stay on the job without pay.
That’s happened 22 times since 1977.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Benton, and his leadership team on Friday afternoon released the "Continuing Appropriations Act, 2027" that would allow the government to continue operating from Oct. 1 to Dec. 4, which is after the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
It’s early going and a lot will change based on conversations with members.
But, generally, Johnson and his leadership team are looking at what is called a “clean CR,” meaning nothing but the necessary wording to continue government operations at present spending levels past the Sept. 30 deadline.
Leadership did not want to include any other issues to which members might object.
The last government shutdown, from Feb. 14 to April 30, for instance, came about because Democrats demanded — and Republicans rejected — requiring federal immigration officers enforcing Trump’s deportation efforts to remove their masks, wear their badges and follow other due process standards.
The shutdown that began Oct. 1, 2025, and ended Nov. 12, 2025, started when Republicans wouldn’t agree to Democratic demands to cover subsidies many workers used to purchase healthcare insurance on the private market that they now can no longer afford.
GOP thinking is a continuing resolution that is just an up-or-down vote to ward off a government shutdown would make it politically harder for Democrats to oppose.
Polymarket, which takes bets on events, charted Thursday that two-thirds, 66%, of its wagers on whether the federal government will shut down put money on yes.
But after chatter Thursday that included leadership's thinking on a "clean CR," only 55% were betting on a shutdown by Friday morning.
Even though the deadline is two and a half months away, Johnson and GOP leaders hope to get a CR to the floor this week.
The House is scheduled to leave Thursday and the Senate two weeks after that, before spending the entire month of August away from Capitol Hill.
They’ll be back for a few weeks in September, then return to their districts for October campaigning.
Creating a “clean CR” is more difficult because Trump repeatedly has said he won’t sign any legislation until Congress passes a stricter election-security measure.
The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act would require proof of citizenship when registering to vote, identification when casting a ballot and restrictions on using mail-in ballots.
The House has passed the SAVE Act several times.
But it’s a no-go for some Republican senators and all of the Democratic ones.
So Johnson and his team are adding SAVE Act wording on reconciliation bills in hopes that the Senate can find one instrument that 51 Republican senators would approve — and also to calm conservative fears by not attaching the issue to a “clean CR.”
Reconciliation allows adjustments on existing appropriations that can be approved with a simple majority in both chambers, using a convoluted procedure that circumvents Senate rules that require 60 votes for passage.
A downsized Reconciliation 3.0, which Johnson said would get a vote this week, gives the Defense Department $73 billion for intelligence programs and to help cover unexpected expenses in the military action against Iran, along with $12 billion for farmers and $10 billion for grants to incentivize states to pass their own strict voter identification laws.
“It’s our best shot at enacting our party’s top priority legislation, the SAVE America Act,” Johnson said.
Email Mark Ballard at mballard@theadvocate.com.
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