Newsweek35%
Map Shows Trump Approval Rating in Every State After 18 Months 47%
By Sam Stevenson39%
7/20/2026, 9:00:00 AM
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BS Summary: This article contains 24 faulty reasoning types, including Biased Writer Voice, Appeal to Authority, and Representativeness Heuristic, with Negativity Bias as the most egregious example at 20.3% saturation with 237 hits. Analysis detected 1,522 faulty-reasoning hits from 1,169 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 49.3% and a BS Rank of 47% (10,130 of 19,034 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 53.20% of the article peer group.
Almost exactly 18 months into President Donald Trump's second term, new polling shows a political map that still reflects America's familiar partisan divide—but one where many of the president's early advantages have narrowed.
The data comes from Civiqs' rolling online tracking poll of 117,851 registered voters.
A Newsweek analysis compares Trump's approval rating on July 17, 2026, with where it stood when he returned to office on January 20, 2025, with net approval calculated as approve minus disapprove.
Nationally, Trump receives 37 percent approval and 58 percent disapproval, leaving him clearly underwater overall, with a net approval rating of -21.
The state-by-state map tells a similar story: strongest in Republican territory, deeply negative in Democratic strongholds, and struggling across much of the battleground map.
Key Points
Trump is underwater in every major battleground state 18 months into his second term.
His strongest support remains concentrated in Republican strongholds, led by Wyoming, North Dakota, and Idaho.
Several states that began Trump's second term with positive net approval now sit underwater.
Younger voters, independents, and postgraduates remain among Trump's weakest demographic groups.
Why It Matters
New state-by-state polling shows the president underwater in every swing state, meaning even small shifts could shape Congress in 2026.
Use the map below to explore where Trump's approval rating stands in each state after 18 months in office
Deep Red States Remain Trump's Strongest Territory
Trump continues to post positive net approval across much of the Republican heartland, though several of the margins are significantly smaller than when he returned to office.
Wyoming remains his strongest state at +24 net approval, followed by North Dakota at +18, Idaho at +14, and West Virginia at +16.
Alabama and Oklahoma both stand at +14, while South Dakota posts +12.
Even so, those figures represent a clear decline from January 2025.
Wyoming began Trump's second term at +47, North Dakota at +34, Idaho at +34, and West Virginia at +35.
Kentucky offers one of the clearest examples of how the landscape has changed.
It opened Trump's second term at +23 net approval but now stands at exactly 0.
Support across much of the Republican map remains positive, but the margins are noticeably thinner than they were 18 months ago.
Swing States Remain Underwater
The most politically important story remains the battleground map.
Trump is now underwater in every major swing state:
Arizona: -11
Georgia: -21
Nevada: -21
North Carolina: -13
Pennsylvania: -14
Wisconsin: -15
Florida: -12
Ohio: -11
Several of those states were either positive or evenly split when Trump took office.
Florida has moved from +9 to -12.
Ohio has fallen from +8 to -11.
Nevada has shifted from 0 to -21, while North Carolina has gone from 0 to -13.
The deficits are not overwhelming, but they reinforce a broader pattern: Trump is underwater across the states that are likely to play the biggest role in shaping control of Congress and the White House.
Deep Blue States Remain Firmly Negative
At the other end of the map, opposition to Trump remains deeply entrenched.
Hawaii posts the lowest net approval rating at -59, followed by Vermont at -55, Maryland at -50, California at -44 and Massachusetts at -46.
Washington stands at -40, while New York sits at -37 and Oregon at -40.
In these states, the story is less about dramatic movement and more about opposition remaining firmly in place.
Trump was heavily underwater when he began his second term and remains so now.
What The Demographic Data Shows
The national demographic breakdown helps explain why the state map looks the way it does.
Trump's weakest numbers continue to come among younger voters.
Among adults aged 18 to 34, just 24 percent approve of his job performance while 69 percent disapprove.
Among those aged 35 to 49, approval stands at 29 percent and disapproval at 64 percent.
Independents also remain negative, with 30 percent approving and 63 percent disapproving.
Women disapprove by a 64-to-31 margin, while men are more closely divided at 51 percent disapprove and 43 percent approve.
Education remains a major dividing line.
Among postgraduates, Trump's approval stands at 25 percent compared with 71 percent disapproval.
Among non-college graduates, the split narrows to 41 percent approve and 54 percent disapprove.
These demographic divides help explain why Trump performs more strongly in parts of the Republican heartland than in highly educated metropolitan areas and battleground states.
Where Approval Has Fallen The Most
Every state in the tracker has seen a lower net approval rating than it did on January 20, 2025.
Some of the steepest declines have occurred in places that initially gave Trump some of his strongest support.
Among the largest drops:
Wyoming: +47 to +24 (down 23 points)
Kentucky: +23 to 0 (down 23 points)
Florida: +9 to -12 (down 21 points)
Idaho: +34 to +14 (down 20 points)
North Dakota: +34 to +18 (down 16 points)
Ohio: +8 to -11 (down 19 points)
West Virginia: +35 to +16 (down 19 points)
Tennessee: +25 to +7 (down 18 points)
Texas: +6 to -12 (down 18 points)
Nevada: 0 to -21 (down 21 points)
The notable feature of those declines is that many are occurring in Republican-leaning states rather than places where Trump was already unpopular.
The Middle Of The Map Has Tightened
One notable feature of the current map is how many states now sit close to the divide between positive and negative territory.
Indiana stands at +3.
Utah is +4.
Kansas sits at +3.
Nebraska is -1, while Louisiana and Missouri are both -3.
Mississippi is effectively even at -1, and Kentucky sits exactly at 0.
That clustering suggests a map where the overall partisan shape remains familiar, but where many state-level margins have compressed.
A Map That Looks Familiar—But Weaker
Eighteen months into Trump's second term, the political map still broadly resembles the one he began with.
His strongest states remain overwhelmingly Republican.
His weakest remain concentrated in Democratic territory.
The geography has not fundamentally changed.
The margins, however, have.
At the start of his second term, Trump held clear positive net approval across much of the Republican map and was competitive in several key battlegrounds.
Today, many of those same states are either narrowly positive, evenly balanced or clearly negative.
The result is a map that retains its familiar partisan shape—but one where the president has less room for error than he did when he first returned to office.
What The White House Says
The White House has continued to point to Trump's 2024 election victory as its clearest measure of public support, arguing that the nearly 80 million Americans who voted for him delivered a mandate for his agenda.
In a response the administration has used repeatedly in reply to polling inquiries, spokesman Davis Ingle said "the ultimate poll was November 5, 2024," adding that Trump is continuing to deliver on a "popular and commonsense agenda" and that "this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect."
Analysis
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