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Social Security’s next COLA projection might not go as far as retirees hope 72%
By Eric Revell80%
4/16/2026, 7:34:37 PM
BS Summary: This article contains 23 faulty reasoning types, including Hasty Generalization, Framing Effect, and Pessimism Bias, with Negativity Bias as the most egregious example at 25.4% saturation with 142 hits. Analysis detected 1,263 faulty-reasoning hits from 559 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 64.7% and a BS Rank of 72% (4,841 of 16,813 articles). This article is worse (more manipulative) than 71.20% of the article peer group.
American retirees who are receiving Social Security will see an annual cost of living adjustment (COLA) next year, and a new report projects that next year's benefit increase may be smaller than many retirees expect.
A new analysis by The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) predicts that Social Security's 2027 COLA will be 2.8%, which would be the same benefit boost as the 2026 COLA.
That would amount to an increase in the average Social Security benefits check for retired workers of $56.69, raising the benefit from $2,024.77 to $2,081.46 per month.
"Americans are right to worry about our current COLA projection," said TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton.
"The fact is that most senior households already get by on only about 58% as much income as their working-age counterparts, and you'd be hard-pressed to find a middle-class or working-class American who thinks the economy is doing well right now, especially as oil prices rise."
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The Social Security Administration (SSA) computes the annual Social Security COLA using a variant of inflation data from the consumer price index (CPI) based on the months of July, August and September.
The agency announces the COLA each October, although last year's announcement was delayed by a government shutdown.
TSCL's estimate of a 2.8% COLA for 2027 was based on the year-over-year CPI-W reading coming in at 2.2% in both January and February, then rising to 3.3% in March.
Inflation jumped in March, largely due to the energy supply shock caused by the Iran war disrupting the flow of oil from the Middle East because tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was at a standstill due to the conflict.
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Economists have warned that inflation may rise further in the next few months and could remain elevated through the end of the year depending on how long the energy impact of the conflict goes on, though there is uncertainty around those projections related to the war's duration and resolution.
Social Security's main trust fund is being depleted due to the aging of America's population and rising enrollment, causing expenses from benefit payments to rise beyond what the trust fund and incoming payroll tax receipts can cover.
Recent projections estimate it will reach insolvency in 2032, at which time benefits would be cut by an estimated 24% across the board to match incoming revenue.
IRAN WAR COULD PUSH INFLATION HIGHER THIS YEAR, GOLDMAN SACHS SAYS
TSCL also criticized a recent proposal to reform Social Security that would cap annual benefits for higher income Americans at $50,000 for an individual or $100,000 for couples.
The Six Figure Limit proposal put forward by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) would only affect a small fraction of Americans.
The group notes that while it wouldn't significantly delay the insolvency of Social Security trust funds on its own, it could "meaningfully delay insolvency in combination with other reforms."
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TSCL's Benton said, "Reforming Social Security needs to follow a two-pronged approach, strengthening revenues and benefits at the same time to ensure prosperity for all Americans of all ages."
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