BS Summary: This article contains 27 faulty reasoning types, including Biased Writer Voice, Negativity Bias, and Pessimism Bias, with Confirmation Bias as the most egregious example at 17% saturation with 130 hits. Analysis detected 1,117 faulty-reasoning hits from 765 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 44.5% and a BS Rank of 50% (13,013 of 25,730 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 50.60% of the article peer group.
The Connecticut Department of Transportation and state and federal elected officials tried to make some “big news” about our trains last week.
Here’s how most media summarized the story: “Connecticut has broken ground on the $1.6 billion TIME-1 upgrade of the New Haven Line, targeting speeds of up to 90 mph, improving service by 2035.”
Maybe you saw the media coverage and said “Wow.
Great news.”
Or maybe you had a sense of déjà vu and asked yourself two questions: “Haven’t I heard this promise before?”
(Yes) and “Should I believe this promise, delivered in an election year?”
(No).
As a journalist I was disappointed (but not surprised) that almost no media asked those same questions, instead just regurgitating the press release.
So let me try to separate the facts from the hype.
Time for CT Project: Your sense of déjà vu was correct as we heard this same announcement five years ago .
And the promises then have yet to be delivered.
In fact it was in 2019 that commuters were promised a 30-minute train ride from New Haven to Stamford.
The fastest trains today are the early morning super-expresses which run non-stop in 45 minutes.
Better, but not what was promised.
Will this really cost $1.6 billion?
Yes, and it’s not yet fully funded.
There’s money so far only for Phase One, just $340 million, to rebuild the catenary, fix one bridge and upgrade tracks and signaling.
And this Phase One covers merely three miles of track .
Phases Two and Three, which bring the biggest improvements, are not yet funded.
Transportation money from the current White House is drying up, so the prospect of the additional $1.3 billion that’s needed seems to me like wishful thinking.
In the tech world they call such claims “vapor-ware.”
So why announce a project that won’t be finished for nine years when funding is still uncertain?
Because it’s an election year.
Don’t get me wrong.
This work is necessary and decades overdue.
It will make the railroad safer and maybe even faster… assuming the money is found and the work gets done.
But I predict it will all cost more and take longer than the officials hope… or are willing to admit.
Finished by 2035?
This will really take nine years?
Yes, and probably longer.
Consider projects like the Walk Bridge in Norwalk, first announced by then-Governor Malloy in 2014, with construction finally beginning in 2023 with an expected completion now in 2029.
Initial cost estimates of $465 million have since doubled.
I’ve been calling it “ the billion dollar bridge ” since first writing about it 12 years ago.
The Walk Bridge is under a repair project that will take another three years.
The Walk Bridge is under a repair project that will take another three years.
Credit: CDOT
Rebuilding a working railroad is expensive and slow.
If Metro-North could shut down the railroad completely, work would go faster… but that is impossible.
So expect a lot of delays for the next decade.
Speeds of up to 90 mph?
This is the promise that most angers me because it’s just not true.
It’s just like Amtrak’s claim that its new Acela NextGen runs 165 mph.
Yes… for about 10 miles in New Jersey and a few more in Rhode Island, but not the full trip from Boston to Washington.
And Connecticut’s supposed “90 mph” trains… they’ll achieve that for a three mile straight stretch between Stratford and Bridgeport, but almost nowhere else.
And by the way, the promised improved average speed of 70 mph on Metro-North will be the same speed limit before the Bridgeport and Spuyten Duyvil derailment s prompted the FRA (Federal Railroad Administration) to lower the speed limits.
And that was 13 years ago.
Don’t believe the hype.
This project is important and I hope it gets built even if it takes longer and costs more than what’s being promised now.
But as I’ve said for years in my CT Rail Commuter Council days, “Our train service will get worse before it gets better”.
There will be delays, just as we’ve seen on other CDOT projects (like the Darien train station , now 15 months behind schedule) or the never ending work on I-95, I-91 and I-84.
But can’t the CDOT and their pol bosses at least be honest with us and not over-promise and consistently under-deliver?
And to my fellow journalists… please stop being stenographers.
Our job isn’t to parrot press releases.
It’s to ask the question on every commuter’s mind: “Will this actually happen?
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Analysis
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