Showers could reach Bay Area before tropical moisture raises lightning risk 2%
By Greg Porter0%
7/20/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Topics: Weather Forecast
BS Summary: This article contains 4 faulty reasoning types, including Appeal to Authority, Anchoring Bias, and Framing Effect, with Negativity Bias as the most egregious example at 7.3% saturation with 81 hits. Analysis detected 165 faulty-reasoning hits from 1,106 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 12.1% and a BS Rank of 2% (18,484 of 18,798 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 98.30% of the article peer group.
A few raindrops could fall across parts of the Bay Area on Monday morning, marking a cloudy, humid and somewhat unsettled start to the week.
Monday morning’s radar should show pockets of rain showers lingering about, mainly offshore.
Some drizzle is likely in the early morning in western parts of San Francisco and along the ocean coastline of the Peninsula.
The North Bay has the best overall chance of seeing some measurable rainfall, generally under a tenth of an inch, as the region is closest to a small upper-level storm quickly moving north along the California coast.
That system is connected to Tropical Storm Elida, barley hanging onto tropical storm status on Monday morning and centered over 600 miles to the southwest of San Francisco.
Moisture, in the form of high level clouds and scattered showers, flow into the Bay Area on Monday morning.
More organized shower activity should develop farther north across Northern California.
Shower chances should linger into the late morning before the upper-level storm quickly moves north toward Oregon.
Monday looks to be a mostly cloudy day across much of the Bay Area, particularly San Francisco, Oakland and the Peninsula, with more breaks in the clouds likely across the inland valleys during the afternoon.
One thing you will probably notice is the humidity.
Dew points will climb into the upper 50s and could approach 60 degrees in some areas, noticeably higher than what we typically experience during the summer.
Combined with temperatures in the 70s and 80s across much of the region, the added moisture will give Monday a distinctly tropical feel.
And afternoon and evening shower activity can’t be completely ruled out either.
That’s thanks to Elida.
Elida continues to weaken well off the California coast and is expected to lose its tropical characteristics by Tuesday morning.
But even as the storm falls apart, it will disrupt the larger-scale flow enough to keep funneling more moisture north toward California through Monday and Tuesday.
On Monday in the Bay Area, that moisture will mostly show up as widespread cloud cover, a noticeably more humid feel near the surface and another chance at late day shower activity.
In the Sierra Nevada, the tropical moisture should have more impact, with widespread showers and storms developing by Monday afternoon, prompting NOAA to caution for a slight risk of excessive rainfall from slow moving storms.
By Tuesday, the remnants of Elida will be farther north over the Pacific, still well offshore but better positioned to send another surge of moisture into California.
The setup should become more favorable for showers and some thunderstorms and lightning by Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night in the Bay Area and in northern California and the Sierra as well.
<strong>Monday breakdown</strong>
<strong>San Francisco:</strong> Scattered showers are possible Monday morning, especially in the hillier parts of the city.
That activity should wane by the afternoon, but clouds will probably dominate the sky for much of the day.
Some clearing is possible downtown and across eastern neighborhoods later in the day, which could help set up a colorful sunset Monday evening.
Highs will reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees east of Twin Peaks, with mid-60s around Ocean Beach and the Sunset District.
The air will feel noticeably more humid, with southwest winds around 10 to 20 mph.
Skies stay mostly cloudy overnight, with warm and humid conditions and lows in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
<strong>North Bay:</strong> The North Bay has the best chance of seeing measurable rainfall from Monday morning’s showers, especially in the hills of Marin, Sonoma and Napa counties.
Beyond that, expect mostly cloudy skies through the morning, with some clearing developing in spots during the afternoon.
It will feel warm and muggy, with highs generally in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees along the Highway 101 corridor from San Rafael and Novato north through Petaluma and Santa Rosa.
Dew points in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees will make the humidity noticeable.
Clouds increase again overnight, with temperatures in the low to mid-60s.
<strong>East Bay:</strong> Clouds will hang over both the bayside and inland East Bay on Monday morning, with a few showers possible near the shoreline and especially across the Berkeley hills and other elevated terrain.
Clouds should linger longer closer to the bay, while some clearing develops across the inland valleys during the afternoon.
Highs will generally reach the mid- to upper 70s along the bayside, with low 70s around Oakland, while Walnut Creek, Pleasanton and Livermore climb into the mid-80s.
Humidity will be noticeably higher, with dew points in the upper 50s making it feel a little sticky.
Clouds return and spread inland overnight, with warm and humid conditions continuing and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
<strong>Pacific Coast and Peninsula:</strong> Scattered light showers are possible along the coast Monday morning, with some activity reaching into the Peninsula hills.
A few showers could make it over to the bayside Peninsula, but most should fade before getting that far east.
Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies through much of the day, especially along the coast, while a few pockets of sunshine develop across the Peninsula during the afternoon.
Highs will reach the mid- to upper 60s in Pacifica and Half Moon Bay and the mid- to upper 70s along the bayside Peninsula.
It will feel noticeably humid, with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Southwest winds may get a little gusty through the usual gaps Monday afternoon.
Mostly cloudy skies return overnight, with lows in the mid-50s along the coast and around 60 degrees farther inland.
<strong>South Bay and Santa Cruz:</strong> Clouds will cover much of the Santa Clara Valley on Monday morning and may linger into the early afternoon before some breaks of sunshine develop.
Most of the morning shower activity should stay north and west of the valley, although a stray shower cannot be ruled out.
It will turn warm and muggy, with highs generally in the low to mid-80s around San Jose and Santa Clara and warmer conditions farther south toward Los Gatos and Morgan Hill.
Dew points around 60 degrees will make the humidity noticeable.
The Santa Cruz Mountains have a better chance of picking up some light measurable rain Monday morning before temperatures climb into the 70s and 80s during the afternoon.
Santa Cruz itself will probably stay mostly cloudy, with only limited clearing and highs in the mid-70s.
Clouds build back overnight across the region, with mild and humid conditions continuing and lows generally in the upper 50s to low 60s.
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