Faulty reasoning signals

• Confirmation Bias - 16.4% (114 hits)
• Anchoring Bias - 5.8% (40 hits)
• Availability Heuristic - 26.6% (185 hits)
• Representativeness Heuristic - 6.2% (43 hits)
• Hindsight Bias - 0%
• Overconfidence Bias - 26% (181 hits)
• Framing Effect - 12.2% (85 hits)
• Loss Aversion - 0%
• Status Quo Bias - 1% (7 hits)
• Sunk Cost Effect - 0%
• Optimism Bias - 0%
• Pessimism Bias - 4.7% (33 hits)

Article text

U.S.-Iran peace talks on hold during Ali Khamenei's funeral

Peace talks with Iran, they're on hold

today as that nation begins funeral services for supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

He was killed in the first wave of US Israeli strikes in February,

you'll remember.

CBS News national security contributor Sam Vinograd joins me to discuss this.

She's also a former assistant secretary for counterterrorism at the Department of Homeland Security.

Sam, happy 4th of July weekend to you.

Let's talk about this important national security issue.

You've got the funeral for the Ayatollah unfolding over the next week.

And reportedly a powerful general who leads Iran's Revolutionary Guard, you know, emerged from hiding and said some inflammatory things about enemies of Iran who will die soon.

I'm just paraphrasing.

And that's likely to be expected now and over the next few days, but what do you make of this specific threat from the Revolutionary Guard general?

And how is the US kind of using this as an intel opportunity?

>> Well, Errol, certainly the fact that this funeral is happening in the first place.

And second, that these key figures, including General Vahedi, who is the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, previous Minister of Defense, and Minister of the Interior.

Just the fact that he and other senior figures are showing their faces, that they're emerging from hiding to attend the funeral, really signals to me that they have some kind of reassurance from the United States, that the United States is not going to take the opportunity to assassinate all of them while they're literally above ground and not in hiding.

So certainly the Iranian regime feels confident that they have basically safe passage and safe harbor over the coming days.

From the Iranian regime perspective, this funeral is really accomplishing two things at once.

Certainly, the funeral is meant to bury the supreme leader, decades-long leader of Iran.

But it is also a show of force, a show of force to the people of Iran and to the world that the regime is functioning, that it is intact.

And as Vahedi said, that it continues to share rhetoric publicly that aligns with, you know, the hardliners within the regime.

So, the regime is using this this funeral for both of those purposes, Errol.

>> And we also heard from President Trump, who's been doing a number of interviews recently, that the war with Iran, according to him, is not a war per se, but rather a denuking of the country.

What do you make of that shift in messaging from the US president?

>> We have seen such a range of different messages from the US president since

this war began.

Certainly, many members of Congress disagree that this is not a war,

war, which is why there have been more powers votes since February when this war began.

The multi-billion dollar price tag associated with this war is also a very clear signal that it is, in fact, a war among multitude a multitude of other factors.

At the same time, the fact Trump is calling this a denuking exercise is a little bit misleading.

Certainly, denuclearization has been one of the priorities of this endeavor, of this war, but President Trump himself,

in the hours after this military operation began, lifted several listed several others, including, of course, getting rid of the regime, getting rid of Iran's support for proxies and more.

And certainly, this memorandum of understanding doesn't just focus on denuclearization.

The MOU between uh the US and Iran focuses on a range of other objectives.

While, of course, Errol, it is important to note that as this funeral is taking place, as we just discussed, talks are on hold.

So, Iran is continuing to receive a significant amount of additional revenue because sanctions have been paused and lifted during the course of the negotiations, but these negotiations are on hold over the course of this funeral.

So, Iran Iran really winning in multiple respects.

>> Mhm.

>> A delicate moment uh for sure. Sam Vinograd joining us from Bethesda.

Sam,

thank you.

>> Thank you, Earl.