Faulty reasoning signals

• Confirmation Bias - 7.9% (76 hits)
• Anchoring Bias - 2.9% (28 hits)
• Availability Heuristic - 8.6% (83 hits)
• Representativeness Heuristic - 5.7% (55 hits)
• Hindsight Bias - 0.6% (6 hits)
• Overconfidence Bias - 6.3% (61 hits)
• Framing Effect - 7.6% (73 hits)
• Loss Aversion - 4.2% (40 hits)
• Status Quo Bias - 0%
• Sunk Cost Effect - 0%
• Optimism Bias - 1.6% (15 hits)
• Pessimism Bias - 0.6% (6 hits)

Article text

Trump wants to ditch his signature trade deal

President Trump calling a mulligan on one of the signature trade deals of his first term.

The White House announced yesterday that it will not renew the USMCA trade agreement with Mexico and Canada.

The decision comes as no surprise.

Here's President Trump just a few weeks ago.

I don't know that I'm going to renew it because to be honest with you,

the United States does much better.

Hey, we don't need anything that Canada has.

We don't need anything that Mexico has, but they need everything that we have.

So, in 2024, the US imported more than $900 billion in goods from both Mexico and Canada.

The White House blames the deal for worsening the US trade deficits with Mexico and Canada.

Now,

the decision raises economic uncertainty for businesses.

The supply chains they have run through all three countries and critics fear significant changes could raise prices on everything from new cars to lumber and groceries.

Group chat is back.

Mike is taking notes.

What are you

I am taking notes.

That's actually a badge of honor on this show.

Well, I appreciate that.

So,

tell me what you think of this.

I look at this as NAFTA 3.0, which we know they didn't really like

NAFTA in the first place, and it sounds like they don't like the UMCA any much better.

So I think

the the the most important part of this reporting is the unpredictability of what we're talking

about here.

This trade agreement goes through 2036 I believe.

So if we didn't renegotiate and do this the way that they want to which is every year which creates that unpredictability which is

unpredictability

which is terrible for business.

Um you know looking down the road we we should know what the the deal

is.

But why is Trump doing this now?

I think it's it's the trans shshipment of Chinese goods through

uh through Mexico.

He feels that they're cheating.

It is the trade deficit um that that you're talking about.

And he likes bilateral deals rather than these trilateral deals.

He doesn't really like any group anything

and he's already in he's not in a group one.

He's not No, I don't think so.

His group chat is with America and Truth Social.

Um so this would be review uh reviewed every six years.

It expires July 2036 as you said.

So that was many years of certainty which could be out the window.

How do Democrats talk about this?

I think about this era of dealm which was pushed by globalization as just a huge part of especially a centrist argument by the Clinton style Democrat.

Do you go to bat to this now in a populist age? No.

This is it's to your point this is going

to create more uncertainty when people can't afford food and the majority of our fruits and

vegetables come from Mexico.

People can't afford housing.

Lumber comes from Canada.

The fact that

he is so arrogant that he just said we don't need anything from these two countries is completely false.

We have cars that are made in Mexico that then come here and are assembled here than then

are considered made in the USA.

There is so much that these two countries Democrats might fight

it.

I mean, there are some Democrats in border states, Washington, Michigan, Arizona, California,

and then we had Representative Susan Delben on here yesterday.

She's the head of the um the group

that's supposed to help Democrats get elected.

And she said that online, "Washington has particularly

benefited from this agreement, and it's one of the states with the most to lose by withdrawing."

She says withdrawing will harm our already war and tariff raged economy, threaten jobs.

This is a gravely misguided step by the president.

I am curious about how this intersects with tariffs and

that regime has not gone well.

Well, I just think that it just is creating more uncertainty in our economy

when people can't afford the uncertainty and when you can't afford your groceries and our groceries are coming and a lot of it is coming from Mexico.

That is a problem.

So, it's not even

to me it's not even necessarily about the minutia of the actual trade agreement and figuring out

the specifics of it.

See it as insult to economic injury.

Exactly.

And he's just it's like he does

not care literally about anybody.

I am going to push back on that because where he where it it is

going to be bad for border states which are mostly blue states but we don't we won't get into that

political conversation to the north and to the north.

Okay, let me finish my sentence.

Texas is

so big though because when I said it I realized i needed to say to the north but um when we're

talking about autos for instance that that is part of the that is part of the upset with Mexican with

Chinese manufacturing of automobile parts being shipped to Mexico then put in as part of this

agreement and then shipped to the United States.

It's a way to skirt all of the tariffs on Chinese

manufacturing on goods and services, especially agricultural products that we ship both north and

south from middle of America.

Those those um shipments are we're we're being uh hurt with

those shipments as well.

So there are two sides of this argument.

But but where I agree with you is

on the uncertainty.

The problem you want some level of certainty with trade agreements.

bring this up has benefited from the uncertainty is the president in the stock market right now.