Faulty reasoning signals

• Confirmation Bias - 20.5% (99 hits)
• Anchoring Bias - 0%
• Availability Heuristic - 12.4% (60 hits)
• Representativeness Heuristic - 11% (53 hits)
• Hindsight Bias - 0%
• Overconfidence Bias - 6.4% (31 hits)
• Framing Effect - 2.1% (10 hits)
• Loss Aversion - 0%
• Status Quo Bias - 4.8% (23 hits)
• Sunk Cost Effect - 0%
• Optimism Bias - 2.5% (12 hits)
• Pessimism Bias - 5.6% (27 hits)

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Iran Tanker Attacks Raise Strait of Hormuz Threat to 'Severe'

The threat to commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz has been raised to "severe" after a series of Iranian attacks on vessels this week, according to a CNBC report citing a warning issued Tuesday by the U.S.-led Joint Maritime Information Center.

The Bahrain-based center, which coordinates maritime security information between allied naval forces and commercial shipping operating in the Middle East, warned mariners that "deliberate hostile action" by Iran is now "likely under current conditions."

The elevated warning comes despite an interim agreement signed by the United States and Iran on June 17 that included Iranian assurances of safe passage for commercial shipping through the strategic waterway.

Since that agreement, however, Tehran has launched multiple attacks on vessels using a shipping corridor near Oman's coastline that is protected by the U.S.

Navy.

"There is obviously a battle for control, because obviously the only leverage Iran has is control of Hormuz," Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a London-based senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward, told CNBC.

Qatar on Tuesday blamed Iran for an attack on its liquefied natural gas tanker, Al-Rekayyat, near the Strait of Hormuz and called on Tehran to stop threatening global energy supplies.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Centre has also received three separate reports of tankers coming under attack in or near the strait this week.

According to Bockmann, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively split into separate shipping corridors, with one protected by the U.S.

Navy and another overseen by Iran.

She told CNBC Gulf Arab states are increasingly routing vessels through a southern passage hugging Oman's coast that is protected by the U.S.

Navy, while ships are avoiding the traditional central channel after Iran mined portions of the area.

Iran's military has warned that vessels not using a northern route approved by Tehran could be targeted.

"This is part of this sporadic targeted campaign by Iran to destabilize that southern corridor and send a message to Gulf State producers that are not sending their oil via that northern corridor," Bockmann told CNBC.

Last month, U.S.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S.

Navy-protected corridor had effectively eliminated Iran's ability to shut down the strait.

Iran later attacked a cargo ship using that route, prompting the United States to respond with another round of airstrikes against Iranian targets.

Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased since Washington and Tehran reached their interim agreement but remains well below prewar levels.

Trade intelligence firm Kpler verified that more than 100 vessels passed through the strait over the weekend, while Windward data showed crude oil exports averaged about 4.3 million barrels per day in June.

Before the conflict, more than 100 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz each day and crude exports exceeded 15 million barrels per day.

"The strait remains far from fully functioning," Bockmann told CNBC.