Faulty reasoning signals

• Confirmation Bias - 10.2% (64 hits)
• Anchoring Bias - 0%
• Availability Heuristic - 10.7% (67 hits)
• Representativeness Heuristic - 0%
• Hindsight Bias - 0%
• Overconfidence Bias - 0%
• Framing Effect - 14.8% (93 hits)
• Loss Aversion - 0%
• Status Quo Bias - 0%
• Sunk Cost Effect - 0%
• Optimism Bias - 3% (19 hits)
• Pessimism Bias - 0%

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Belgium’s Soccer Federation ‘Astonished’ that FIFA Allowed US Star Folarin Balogun to Play After Red Card

Shockingly, the team that had the most to gain from U.S. star striker Folarin Balogun being unable to play is angry that he is suddenly able to play.

Balogun, who scored the game-winning goal in the U.S.

Men’s National Team’s (USMNT) win over Bosnia and Herzegovina earlier this week, was assessed a red card later in the match after a highly controversial VAR review, which, as it turns out, was conducted illegally.

More on that in a moment.

The red card put Balogun out of the final 26 minutes of the B&H match and the entirety of the U.S. men’s upcoming Round of 16 match with the Belgians in Seattle on Monday.

That was, until Sunday afternoon, when FIFA announced that it was suspending Balogun's disqualification from the game and instead issuing him a one-year probation while allowing him to play against Belgium.

The sudden reversal brought a sharp rebuke from the Royal Belgian Football Federation, which charged FIFA with pulling an “April Fool’s Day” prank.

“The Royal Belgian Football Association (RBFA) is astonished by FIFA’s decision to declare suspended United States player Folarin Balogun eligible to play in the USA–Belgium match on Monday, 6 July at 5:00 p.m.

(Seattle time).

“FIFA bases its decision on Article 27 of the FIFA Disciplinary Code.

This provision states that the FIFA Disciplinary Committee may decide to suspend the enforcement of a previously imposed disciplinary sanction.

“However, Article 66.4 of the same FIFA Disciplinary Code clearly provides that a red card (sending-off) automatically results in a suspension for the team’s next match, as has been the case for all previous red cards issued during this FIFA World Cup.

“Furthermore, and irrespective of the above, the decision is in direct contradiction with the provisions of the FIFA World Cup 2026 Competition Regulations, as set out in Article 10.5:

“‘If a player or team official is sent off as a result of a direct or indirect red card (second caution), they will automatically be suspended from their team’s subsequent match.

In addition, further sanctions may be imposed.’

“The automatic nature of such a suspension was also explicitly reaffirmed in FIFA World Cup 2026 Circular No. 16, which was distributed to all participating member associations on 12 May 2026.

“The same rule is reiterated at every FIFA World Cup 2026 Match Coordination Meeting prior to each match and is included in all FIFA World Cup 2026 workshop presentations.

“In order to safeguard the legitimate rights of all participating teams and to protect the fundamental principles of fair play in our sport, both at this FIFA World Cup and at future editions of the tournament, the RBFA is investigating all potential options.”

While the RBFA investigates its options, there are some holes in its case.

It is true that the rules regarding red cards are supposed to be straightforward, but that's not actually what's at issue.

The issue is how Brazilian referee Rafael Claus reached the decision to give Balogun a red card.

While the use of VAR is permitted to determine the “intensity of an offense.”

The rules dictate that the video review should be played at normal speed.

The video Claus reviewed was slow-motion footage.

After viewing Balogun's foul on Muharemović in slow motion, Claus issued the striker a red card, having shown him no card during the actual play.

That is not how VAR is supposed to be used when determining the severity of a penalty.

A healthy argument can, and perhaps should, be made about whether Balogun should have been given a red card.

However, it was the process by which Claus determined the severity of the penalty that rendered the red card null and void.