Faulty reasoning signals

• Confirmation Bias - 11.6% (65 hits)
• Anchoring Bias - 0%
• Availability Heuristic - 12.2% (68 hits)
• Representativeness Heuristic - 2.2% (12 hits)
• Hindsight Bias - 0%
• Overconfidence Bias - 3.4% (19 hits)
• Framing Effect - 11.5% (64 hits)
• Loss Aversion - 15.4% (86 hits)
• Status Quo Bias - 3.6% (20 hits)
• Sunk Cost Effect - 0%
• Optimism Bias - 14.2% (79 hits)
• Pessimism Bias - 20.8% (116 hits)

Article text

US tells Nato that spending must increase ‘immediately’ or alliance will face consequences

The Trump administration has warned that Nato allies must step up defence spending “immediately” or face the consequences ahead of a summit with the military alliance this week.

Matt Whitaker, the US ambassador to Nato, said on Sunday that some partners were “doing more than others”, and that president Donald Trump expects all to “step up” and honour their commitments.

“Some allies are doing more than others.

Poland, the Nordic countries, the Baltic countries lead the way,” he said.

“But many others are lagging behind, and President Trump expects all allies to step up immediately and not only get on a sustainable path to the 5 per cent [of GDP spent on defence] but to get to 5 per cent as soon as possible.”

Nato leaders will meet in Ankara on Tuesday and Wednesday to review progress made since last year and talk through pressing topics from defence investment to support for Ukraine.

Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte said the gathering will show that Europeans are honouring pledges to hike defence spending to deter Russia from any attack, with arms deals worth tens of billions of dollars to be signed.

“NATO is, and will always be, a transatlantic alliance but we need to rebalance it for the better,” he said.

“Working closely with the United States, European allies and Canada are taking greater responsibility for conventional defence in Europe.”

Nato leaders agreed last year to boost defence-related spending to five per cent of GDP by 2035, and Britain in June pledged an additional £15bn to transform the armed forces and “keep the UK safe”.

But allies have raised concerns about the rate at which the Trump administration is pulling back with Russia still in Ukraine.

European allies will be especially keen to set aside tensions with Trump this week after the Pentagon was reported to be considering options to punish opponents of his war with Iran.

US defence secretary Pete Hegseth in June announced a six-month review of the US military footprint in Europe, following weeks of threats to move thousands of troops from the continent.

Ahead of the Ankara summit, Trump restated his complaint that the United States was spending money to protect Nato members "without getting any benefit from so doing".

On Friday, the president blasted the “one sided” relationship with the military alliance, attacking partners he said “were not there for us” in the past ahead of a Nato summit in Ankara next week.

In an op-ed published in The Economist on Sunday, Mark Rutte and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said that the era of Europe outsourcing much of its defence is “now over”.

“European Nato allies and EU members states are relearning that if we want to prevent war, we have to be ready for it,” they wrote.

They said that while a “pragmatism and sense of urgency is at the front of minds”, stockpiles are under pressure from the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, while Russia, China, North Korea and Iran enhance cooperation.

“In this more dangerous world, a stronger European defence industry capable of producing at scale and at speed is crucial to credible deterrence.

The only way to get there is through co-operation: combining the efforts of countries and industries, allies and partners.”