Faulty reasoning signals

• Confirmation Bias - 12.3% (92 hits)
• Anchoring Bias - 0%
• Availability Heuristic - 1.1% (8 hits)
• Representativeness Heuristic - 0%
• Hindsight Bias - 0%
• Overconfidence Bias - 2.9% (22 hits)
• Framing Effect - 5.7% (43 hits)
• Loss Aversion - 0%
• Status Quo Bias - 0%
• Sunk Cost Effect - 0%
• Optimism Bias - 2.1% (16 hits)
• Pessimism Bias - 12.5% (94 hits)

Article text

McAdams win could give Utah lawmakers pause on reviving redistricting fight

With Ben McAdams now the Democratic nominee for Utah's left-leaning 1st Congressional District, his campaign is the latest stage on which the state’s ongoing redistricting saga is set to play out.

After his victory on primary night, McAdams said he’s under no illusions that Republican state leaders don’t want him — or any Democrat — in Congress for long.

“They are not going to give up until they guarantee themselves ultimate and unaccountable power,” he said.

“And we are going to fight back and make sure that the people of Utah have the ability to choose someone who reflects their values.”

After a years-long legal fight, a district court selected a new congressional map last November.

It ruled that the Legislature did not follow the law under Proposition 4 — a 2018 citizen ballot initiative that created an independent redistricting commission — in its 2021 redistricting process.

That ruling created the new, left-leaning district in northern Salt Lake County.

McAdams has been tapped by Democrats to represent it.

McAdams was widely seen as the more moderate candidate in the primary.

Going into November, he said he plans to have a two-pronged strategy to not only win over the district's voters, but also continue the fight for Utah’s Democratic representation in Congress.

“I think Utah voters also need to realize that, you know, the powerful forces that have carved up these districts and rigged the outcome of elections for years, they're still at it,” he said.

GOP leaders have not been shy about their displeasure with the redistricting decision and said to expect a constitutional amendment to change it, and possibly weaken the teeth of other ballot initiatives.

But any constitutional change would need the approval of voters — a tactic lawmakers tried in 2024 but was struck down by the Utah Supreme Court after it ruled that the ballot language was misleading.

An effort to get a repeal of Prop 4 on the ballot also narrowly failed to gather enough signatures earlier this year.

And voters may not be in the mood.

Leah Murray, director of the Walker Institute of Politics and Public Service at Weber State University, said McAdams’ win and Senate President Stuart Adams' surprise primary loss make the situation complicated for GOP lawmakers.

“Stuart Adams lost his primary race, I think, for no other reason than a lack of trust in legislative leadership,” she said.

“That variable coming into the equation I do think has an effect, so I could totally see the legislature being like, ‘Maybe we are not picking up the repeal Prop 4 this minute.’”

There is no specific language for any constitutional amendment yet, and a legislative spokesperson said there are no updates on timing for November.

State law requires any proposed amendment to be published 60 days before election day, putting that deadline at Sept.

4.

Murray said Republican lawmakers might exercise some restraint because the “last thing they want to do is add another big drama that they're not sure how it goes.”

“I think they've got constitutional questions around which organ of power is supposed to be drawing districts, and I actually think those are legitimate questions,” she said.

“But I think politically they're going to take the Stuart Adams loss as an, ‘Oh, the playbook isn't actually working the way we thought it was or the way that we were predicting it was.’”

If Murray were advising GOP leaders, she said her recommendation would be to not make getting McAdams out of office the face of the effort.

In fact, she thinks this might not be the year at all to take up yet another redistricting fight.

“If I were them, I would wait a year and just kind of be like, ‘What did we learn from all of our new candidates?’”

she said.

“I would lean into very small-c conservative values when I talked about it.”

The next redistricting process is set to take place after the 2030 census, making the 2032 election the next time a new map could be before voters.

For his part, McAdams said he is not wasting any time or resting on any laurels.

“We are going to assume the worst and I expect that they will do everything they can,” he said.

“We're going to fight to defend Prop 4.”

McAdams will face Republican Riley Owen in November.

The Cook Political Report rates Utah’s 1st Congressional District as a safe Democratic seat.