Faulty reasoning signals

• Ambiguity (Equivocation) - 26.2%
• Post Hoc (False Cause) - 19%
• Overconfidence Bias - 15.7%

Article text

Deputy Editor, National Security and Foreign Policy

Newsweek is a Trust Project member

See more of our trusted coverage when you search. to see more of our trusted coverage when you search.

As Iran prepares to bury slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following a massive five-day funeral procession and new clashes with the nation that killed him, it's the end of an era for the Islamic Republic.

But having thus far survived the still-ongoing battle with the United States and Israel, a new version of Iran's velayat-e faqih —or Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist—system is already taking shape under the leadership of his son and successor, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

The younger Khamenei was not present at his father's funeral, nor has he been publicly seen or heard from since reportedly being wounded in the same attack that killed the man who ruled Iran for 37 years, along with other family members.

Rather, an increasingly collective leadership has emerged to lead the nation in his name. While Mojtaba Khamenei remains at the helm, other interest groups, including the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are stepping up in the absence of the commander in chief, even if the kind of dissent for which the U.S. and Israel have yearned has yet to manifest.

"With respect to the formal (de jure) distribution of power at the apex of the Islamic Republic, it appears that the current Leader is unlikely to be willing to share power in the short term," Mahdi Kharratiyan, head of the Institute for Revival of Politics think tank in Tehran, told Newsweek . "Given the country's particular circumstances, this position is understandable. Although limited delegations of authority are likely to take place, no fundamental change in the overall structure is expected."

"Nevertheless," Kharratiyan said, "it seems that in informal spheres, some elements within the political system, both governance bodies and political factions, may attempt to decentralize the system in an informal manner."

A Look at the New Supreme Leader's Rule

Kharratiyan emphasized that, under the emerging order, power would remain concentrated at the highest echelon of the system.

At the same time, while Mojtaba Khamenei's nascent term appears defined by continuity and adherence to faithful traditions, Kharratiyan identified some emerging trends.

"The previous Leader sought, while observing the red lines and fundamental principles of the Islamic Republic, to allow the greatest possible degree of participation by reformist and dissenting political currents and to appoint their representatives to positions within sensitive state institutions whenever feasible," Kharratiyan said. "Nevertheless, due to repeated interventions by the United States in Iran's domestic affairs, he was unable to build a broad national consensus, and it appears that the current Leader is facing the same challenge."

"On the other hand, the current Leader seems to be more decisive than his predecessor in enforcing these red lines," he added.

Kharratiyan saw pros and cons to the approach.

"On the positive side, it may enable the Leader to establish his authority successfully from the very beginning of his tenure and convince political factions that bypassing the institution of the Supreme Leadership is not an option," Kharratiyan said. "On the negative side, however, it may generate certain challenges in the public sphere."

Public opinion counts in Iran , even if the supreme leader has the final say. While the Iranian government has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to unleash security forces against displays of dissent—most recently the January protests and subsequent clashes that served as President Donald Trump's initial impetus for intervention—pragmatism is a potent tool in the arsenal of officials.

Merhzad Boroujerdi, an expert on Iranian political and religious affairs serving as vice provost and dean of Missouri University of Science and Technology's College of Arts, Sciences and Education, anticipated Mojtaba Khamenei would "continue his father's hardline and authoritarian approach to domestic politics while seeking to revive what the regime refers to as the 'Axis of Resistance,'" a term referring to the coalition of militias adhering to Tehran's ideology across the Middle East.

Yet he also observed some potential divergences in the name of preserving the Islamic Republic as it faces its most serious test since its foundation upon the Islamic Revolution that brought the elder Khamenei's predecessor, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, to power in 1979.

"The one area in which Mojtaba may, at least to some extent, depart from his father's approach is in the social and cultural sphere," Boroujerdi told Newsweek . "In an effort to secure a measure of public acquiescence and alleviate popular discontent, he may relax some of the country's most restrictive social and cultural policies."

"Even so, such reforms are likely to be driven not by ideological conviction but by pragmatic considerations," Boroujerdi said. "Their primary purpose would be to enhance the regime's long-term stability rather than to signal the beginning of a broader process of political liberalization."

Establishing Legitimacy

Pragmatism lies at the roots of both father and son Khamenei's initial rise to power.

When Khomeini passed away a decade into his rule in 1989, Ali Khamenei did not initially hold the envisioned clerical rank of ayatollah , or sign of God, nor was he recognized as a marjaʿ-e taqlid, or source of emulation, in Twelver Shiite Islam doctrine. He was granted the title only upon his succession.

His son faced a similar dilemma, thus formalizing a process of the 88-member Assembly of Experts—a body vetted by the supreme leader's even more exclusive 12-member Council of Guardians—ascribing religious legitimacy as a reaction to political considerations.

But as Boroujerdi argued, Ali Khamenei may now be "regarded as the last genuine faqih (Islamic jurist) to occupy the position of Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic," given the particular haste in which his son was chosen as successor. Mojtaba Khamenei further lacks the credentials of his father's pre-revolutionary activism against the U.S.-backed monarchy and tenure as president during the Islamic Republic's existential battle with Iraq throughout the 1980s.

The result may be an acceleration of an evolution of the Islamic Republic that began under Ali Khamenei, who had already begun delegating certain authorities among key actors, including the IRGC, the conventional military— known as the Artesh —and other key stakeholders in an intricate balancing act.

"Mojtaba’s accession will almost certainly accelerate the shift toward an increasingly militarized system," Boroujerdi said. "The IRGC has emerged from the recent war with greater agenda-setting power than before. Both Mojtaba and the clerical establishment understand that their survival and continued rule depend, in more ways than one, on the power of the IRGC."

"The death of Ali Khamenei has created a vacuum at the apex of Iran's power structure, one that has been further deepened by Mojtaba Khamenei's continued absence from the public arena," Boroujerdi added. "As a result, competition among the regime's various factions has intensified."

The most prominent of these factions are divided into principlists seeking to adhere to stricter interpretations of the velayat-e faqih dogma and reformists pushing for a more liberal agenda within the confines of the system.

Ali Alfoneh, senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute who closely tracks the inner workings of the Islamic Republic, recalled that it took Ali Khamenei up to eight years to establish himself as the undisputed heir against the previously favored Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the then-parliament speaker who went on to serve as Iran's next president.

Today, Alfoneh told Newsweek, "Mr. Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen by anyone, dead or alive, since February 28, 2026, is in a much weaker position."

The Twelfth Imam and Council of Five

The intrigue surrounding Mojtaba Khamenei's fate in some way mirrors one of Twelver Shiism's most fundamental tenets, that of the Twelfth Imam, Mohammed al-Mahdi, who is believed to have entered a form of concealment known as occultation in the ninth century, only to reappear in end times to bring peace and justice on Earth.

"He may not even be alive, or he may be incapacitated, making him a figure akin to the Mahdi, the Shi'a Messiah, who went into occultation," Alfoneh said.

Mojtaba Khamenei is not the first modern Iranian figure to lead in absence. Alfoneh pointed out a similar status ascribed to Masoud Rajavi, co-head of the dissident Mojahedin-e Khalq (MeK) group who disappeared in Iraq in 2003. His wife, Maryam Rajavi, leads the group in exile from France, maintaining that her husband is alive and in hiding.

But while the MeK and other opposition factions have joined U.S. and Israeli hopes for unrest within the ranks of the Islamic Republic, power structures have rallied behind the new supreme leader's image. They view the confrontation thus far as a victory for both the country and its system, albeit with some necessary adaptations.

"The occultation of Mr. Mojtaba Khamenei has not caused a power vacuum because other institutions were prepared to fill the void," Alfoneh said. "Since February 28, Iran has effectively been governed by a five-member collective leadership."

This includes the head of three branches of government—President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliamentary Speaker Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf and Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejehi—along with IRGC commander Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi and an unidentified Artesh representative.

"The members of this collective leadership represent competing policy priorities, yet they have managed to work together because of the existential threat they perceive from Israel," Alfoneh said.

"Among them, the strategically minded Qalibaf and Vahidi have emerged as first among equals, and their primacy appears to be recognized by the others," he added. "Their relationship to Mr. Mojtaba Khamenei is likely to be one of instrumental use of his authority as a rubber stamp to legitimize the policies of the collective leadership."

Ultimately, it may be soon to tell precisely how the third iteration of the Islamic Republic takes shape, particularly as wartime conditions continue to dictate its nascent evolution.

"Iranian society, like many other societies in transition, is experiencing significant changes," Hassan Beheshtipour, an Iranian international affairs analyst, told Newsweek . "However, the full scope and direction of these developments cannot yet be predicted with confidence, as Iran is still facing the conditions of war and national defense against ongoing military attacks."

For now, he pointed out, "the main pillars of political authority in Iran remain centered on the institution of the Supreme Leadership," although he indicated that "it is likely that in the future we may witness reforms aimed at expanding the role of the public in governance, especially in the economic sphere."

Much will depend on the outcome of the still-ongoing conflict, which has ramped up in recent days with Trump threatening to scrap the ceasefire altogether just as the late Khamenei began the final journey toward his hometown burial site in Mashhad.

"A key question is whether this conflict will eventually lead to a comprehensive agreement between Iran and the United States, or whether it will continue as a series of limited and managed confrontations until the U.S. congressional elections next November," Beheshtipour said.

"In any event," he added, "the outcome of this war is likely to have important consequences not only for Iran's domestic political developments but also for the future regional order in the Middle East."

Request Reprint & Licensing

View Editorial & AI Guidelines