Semafor83%
El Niño expected to stress global supply chains 98%
By Tom Chivers87%
7/21/2026, 12:38:14 PM
BS Summary: This article contains 13 faulty reasoning types, including Appeal to Authority, Availability Heuristic, and Pessimism Bias, with Negativity Bias as the most egregious example at 56.3% saturation with 72 hits. Analysis detected 453 faulty-reasoning hits from 128 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 97.9% and a BS Rank of 98% (397 of 19,215 articles). This article is worse (more manipulative) than 97.90% of the article peer group.
This year’s El Niño weather system, expected to be one of the strongest in decades, could cause a global economic shock that the world is unable to absorb given existing stress on supply chains, Deutsche Bank warned.
The phenomenon causes temperature spikes every few years and shifts weather patterns, exacerbating global warming trends: The US can expect wetter conditions, and India weaker monsoons.
Disruption to agriculture, hydropower, shipping, and even political stability makes it “a multi-channel supply shock,” DB economists said.
Alongside the Iran war, El Niño will “push inflation higher … when it is already above target.”
It also raises the risk of natural disasters: China is offering typhoon survival training in coastal cities ahead of El Niño’s arrival.
Confirmation Bias
28.9%Confirmation Bias
OverallThis article
28.9%AuthorTom Chivers
10.1%PublicationSemafor
4.5%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Anchoring Bias
0%Anchoring Bias
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
5%PublicationSemafor
1.7%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Availability Heuristic
37.5%Availability Heuristic
OverallThis article
37.5%AuthorTom Chivers
7.1%PublicationSemafor
5.3%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Representativeness Heuristic
0%Representativeness Heuristic
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
2.4%PublicationSemafor
1.2%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Hindsight Bias
0%Hindsight Bias
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
2.4%PublicationSemafor
1%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Overconfidence Bias
0%Overconfidence Bias
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
3.9%PublicationSemafor
2.5%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Framing Effect
14.1%Framing Effect
OverallThis article
14.1%AuthorTom Chivers
14.9%PublicationSemafor
15.3%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Loss Aversion
0%Loss Aversion
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0.7%PublicationSemafor
0.7%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Status Quo Bias
0%Status Quo Bias
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
1.2%PublicationSemafor
0.6%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Sunk Cost Effect
0%Sunk Cost Effect
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0.9%PublicationSemafor
0.6%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Optimism Bias
0%Optimism Bias
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
12.4%PublicationSemafor
5.3%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Pessimism Bias
37.5%Pessimism Bias
OverallThis article
37.5%AuthorTom Chivers
7.8%PublicationSemafor
3.9%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Negativity Bias
56.3%Negativity Bias
OverallThis article
56.3%AuthorTom Chivers
16.3%PublicationSemafor
11.6%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Self-Serving Bias
0%Self-Serving Bias
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0%PublicationSemafor
1.3%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Fundamental Attribution Error
0%Fundamental Attribution Error
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
1.2%PublicationSemafor
0.9%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Actor-Observer Bias
0%Actor-Observer Bias
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0%PublicationSemafor
0%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
In-Group Bias
0%In-Group Bias
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0%PublicationSemafor
1.5%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Out-Group Homogeneity Bias
0%Out-Group Homogeneity Bias
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0.6%PublicationSemafor
0.8%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Halo Effect
0%Halo Effect
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
3.2%PublicationSemafor
2.3%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Horn Effect
0%Horn Effect
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0%PublicationSemafor
0.1%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Dunning-Kruger Effect
0%Dunning-Kruger Effect
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0%PublicationSemafor
0.1%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Recency Bias
0%Recency Bias
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
3%PublicationSemafor
3.1%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Primacy Effect
0%Primacy Effect
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0.9%PublicationSemafor
0.7%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Blind-Spot Bias
0%Blind-Spot Bias
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0%PublicationSemafor
0%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Ad Hominem
0%Ad Hominem
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0%PublicationSemafor
0.3%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Straw Man
0%Straw Man
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0%PublicationSemafor
0.4%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Appeal to Authority
43%Appeal to Authority
OverallThis article
43%AuthorTom Chivers
12.1%PublicationSemafor
6.7%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
False Dilemma
28.9%False Dilemma
OverallThis article
28.9%AuthorTom Chivers
3.8%PublicationSemafor
2.7%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Slippery Slope
0%Slippery Slope
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0.9%PublicationSemafor
1.9%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Circular Reasoning
0%Circular Reasoning
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0.7%PublicationSemafor
0.1%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Hasty Generalization
0%Hasty Generalization
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
17.7%PublicationSemafor
7.8%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Red Herring
0%Red Herring
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
1.7%PublicationSemafor
0.4%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Bandwagon
0%Bandwagon
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
2.8%PublicationSemafor
1.1%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Appeal to Emotion
0%Appeal to Emotion
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
3.7%PublicationSemafor
5.8%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Begging the Question
0%Begging the Question
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
3.2%PublicationSemafor
1.1%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Post Hoc (False Cause)
37.5%Post Hoc (False Cause)
OverallThis article
37.5%AuthorTom Chivers
10.1%PublicationSemafor
4.8%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Tu Quoque
0%Tu Quoque
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0%PublicationSemafor
0.1%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Burden of Proof
13.3%Burden of Proof
OverallThis article
13.3%AuthorTom Chivers
1.4%PublicationSemafor
0.3%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Appeal to Nature
0%Appeal to Nature
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0%PublicationSemafor
0%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Composition/Division
0%Composition/Division
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
2.1%PublicationSemafor
0.5%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Anecdotal
17.2%Anecdotal
OverallThis article
17.2%AuthorTom Chivers
1.9%PublicationSemafor
1.9%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
No True Scotsman
0%No True Scotsman
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0%PublicationSemafor
0.1%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Ambiguity (Equivocation)
13.3%Ambiguity (Equivocation)
OverallThis article
13.3%AuthorTom Chivers
3.9%PublicationSemafor
2.9%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Gambler’s Fallacy
0%Gambler’s Fallacy
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0%PublicationSemafor
0%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Middle Ground
0%Middle Ground
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0%PublicationSemafor
0.1%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Personal Incredulity
0%Personal Incredulity
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0%PublicationSemafor
0%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Special Pleading
0%Special Pleading
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
2.3%PublicationSemafor
0.2%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Genetic Fallacy
0%Genetic Fallacy
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0%PublicationSemafor
0%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Unattributed Quote
13.3%Unattributed Quote
OverallThis article
13.3%AuthorTom Chivers
3.8%PublicationSemafor
5%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Quote-first Misdirection
13.3%Quote-first Misdirection
OverallThis article
13.3%AuthorTom Chivers
5.6%PublicationSemafor
4.1%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Biased Writer Voice
0%Biased Writer Voice
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
14.2%PublicationSemafor
9.2%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Indoctrination
0%Indoctrination
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0.7%PublicationSemafor
1.6%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Politically Left Leaning Bias
0%Politically Left Leaning Bias
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0%PublicationSemafor
1.2%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Politically Right Leaning Bias
0%Politically Right Leaning Bias
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
0%PublicationSemafor
0.8%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
Attempt to Sell a Product or Service
0%Attempt to Sell a Product or Service
OverallThis article
0%AuthorTom Chivers
1.8%PublicationSemafor
0.9%Bar shows this article. Yellow and cyan markers show the selected author and publication averages.
128 words analyzed.
Analysis
Hover over highlighted words in the article to view the associated bias or fallacy analysis.