Faulty reasoning signals

• Confirmation Bias - 26.2% (92 hits)
• Anchoring Bias - 6.6% (23 hits)
• Availability Heuristic - 14.8% (52 hits)
• Representativeness Heuristic - 28.2% (99 hits)
• Hindsight Bias - 9.7% (34 hits)
• Overconfidence Bias - 0%
• Framing Effect - 13.4% (47 hits)
• Loss Aversion - 0%
• Status Quo Bias - 0%
• Sunk Cost Effect - 23.1% (81 hits)
• Optimism Bias - 31.1% (109 hits)
• Pessimism Bias - 0%

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Why Hakeem Jeffries may not have a vote problem

Despite threats from some progressive candidates, like Colorado’s Melat Kiros, to oppose a Hakeem Jeffries speakership over his support from corporate PACs and AIPAC, the House Democratic leader doesn’t have a vote problem on his hands yet on the level that sank Kevin McCarthy’s speakership years ago.

The underlying conditions are unlikely to change, with Jeffries stressing in a recent interview that his average contribution came from a small donor.

“I’m going to continue to take positions on every issue that are anchored in what’s the best thing to do for the district,” he said.

Kiros hasn’t spoken yet with Jeffries, according to her spokesperson, who added that she “looks forward to conversations with leadership.”

Still, some Democrats are bullish that they’ll have a large enough majority to neutralize threats to Jeffries’ leadership bid — or be able to win over potential objectors in the months to come.

The last time a potential Democratic speaker faced turbulence, purple-district Democrats threatened to vote against Rep.

Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., in 2019 and 2021.

Pelosi faced internal dissent in the caucus vote but not enough to sink her speakership on the House floor, especially after she made a deal with holdouts to limit her term to secure support.

This time, the criticism of a would-be speaker is coming from the left flank of the caucus — progressives who want Jeffries to shift his positions.

Capitol Hill Democrats hope the new insurgent candidates might still change their tune once they enter Congress; unlike when the progressive “Squad” first came into Congress and faced a hostile reception from colleagues, the newer progressives might encounter sitting lawmakers who offer a welcoming attitude and mentorship.

Progressive Caucus Chair Rep.

Greg Casar, D-Texas, has been in touch with Kiros and the Democratic Socialists of America-aligned candidates, according to a person familiar with the conversations.

And there are still subtle signs of a shift on the thorny issues around Israel within the caucus, after the liberal organization J Street endorsed Jeffries and his leadership team for the first time this Congress.