Faulty reasoning signals

• Confirmation Bias - 3.3% (54 hits)
• Anchoring Bias - 0%
• Availability Heuristic - 11.7% (192 hits)
• Representativeness Heuristic - 0%
• Hindsight Bias - 0%
• Overconfidence Bias - 0%
• Framing Effect - 3.3% (55 hits)
• Loss Aversion - 2.9% (48 hits)
• Status Quo Bias - 1.8% (30 hits)
• Sunk Cost Effect - 0%
• Optimism Bias - 2.9% (48 hits)
• Pessimism Bias - 18.2% (299 hits)

Article text

Venezuela Suffered Its Worst Earthquake in Decades: What Comes Next?

On Wednesday, June 24, two powerful earthquakes, measuring 7.2 and 7.5 on the Richter scale, struck along the coast of Venezuela.

The quakes were some of the strongest to hit the South American nation in over a century and have wrought significant devastation, with new assessments of the destruction continuing to flow in.

This comes at a fraught moment for Venezuela, which prior to the earthquakes was in a fragile political equilibrium following the capture and removal of dictator Nicolás Maduro on January 3.

The remaining inner circle of the Maduro regime, headed by Delcy Rodríguez, has been balancing growing popular pressure for reform and democratization with its desire to retain its hold on the levers of power, all while managing its relationship with the United States.

The current disaster and humanitarian crisis add new uncertainty to this already volatile situation.

It will also be a significant test for U.S.

Venezuela policy, which the White House has touted as a major foreign policy success.

Help from the United States will be indispensable, both in the short term to address immediate human needs and over the long term to help rebuild devastated communities and infrastructure.

Q1: What are the initial damage estimates?

A1: As of this writing, at least 589 people are confirmed dead, though thousands more are unaccounted for beneath the rubble.

The epicenter of the quakes was one of Venezuela’s most populated areas, and images and videos of the quakes shared to social media show collapsed structures and violent shaking.

The U.S.

Geological Survey (USGS) has estimated that as many as 10,000 people could be dead, with economic losses projected to be between 1 and 7 percent of GDP.

The earthquakes also impacted electrical transmission and telecommunications infrastructure, leaving many areas without power or the ability to contact emergency services or report the damage in their local communities.

The full extent of the disaster therefore remains difficult to estimate.

Systemic factors within Venezuela have left the country especially vulnerable to earthquakes.

Weak enforcement of building codes and the prevalence of informal construction in cities like Caracas and La Guajira made many structures woefully underprepared for the magnitude of the disaster.

Furthermore, the National Bolivarian Armed Forces, which would ordinarily be first responders to such a complex emergency, have been hollowed out through decades of corruption and politicization.

Initial reports also suggest that the airstrip at Simón Bolívar International Airport has been rendered inoperable, making it impossible to land large planes there.

Aid will need to arrive via smaller planes that can still land, rotor wing aircraft, or by cargo planes that can land at undamaged airfields farther south, though this last option will cost critical hours in overland transport and may be complicated by damaged roads and bridges.

Q2: How rare are earthquakes of this magnitude in Venezuela?

A2: Venezuela’s coastline is a seismically active zone, located along the boundary between the Caribbean and South American tectonic plates.

Perhaps the most famous earthquake in Venezuelan history was an estimated 7.7 magnitude quake that hit Caracas in 1812 during the Venezuelan War of Independence, devastating the city and resulting in as many as 30,000 casualties.

Wednesday’s incident was notable in that two strong earthquakes occurred within a short period of time, a relatively rare seismic occurrence, though a similar but less severe “doublet” occurred in Venezuela’s western Zulia state in the fall of 2025 that caused significant property damage and at least one death.

Given the severity of the earthquake, USGS has noted a high probability of aftershocks in the coming days.

While these are unlikely to reach a magnitude of 6.0 or higher, they could cause additional damage to buildings that have been weakened by previous quakes, further complicating response efforts.

Q3: What are some of the broader concerns for Venezuelans?

A3: Venezuelans harbored little confidence in their government’s ability to fill basic needs before the quake, but the magnitude of this disaster is sure to put the woeful state of emergency response in stark relief.

This could drive further disaffection toward the remaining members of Maduro’s inner circle.

The best thing Rodríguez can do now is prioritize open communication, both between the government and citizens and between individuals.

Notably, the state has encouraged Venezuelans to use its VenApp, a notorious tool of digital repression used to share tips on dissident activity following the stolen 2024 election, to share information about missing relatives and community members.

However, if Rodríguez or her lieutenants are perceived to be prioritizing repression over saving lives, this will only exacerbate domestic unrest.

Venezuela should also open itself to aid from all corners.

Several countries have pledged to contribute humanitarian aid; none should be turned away given the gulf between the level of need and lack of domestic state capacity to meet it.

Over the longer term, better estimates of the scale and extent of destruction will be needed to accurately assess next steps, but all parties should be prepared for a long and costly rebuilding process.

Structures that have not collapsed could still need extensive repairs to ensure they remain structurally sound, a project with a price tag likely in the billions.

Venezuela’s investment is already precarious: Earlier this week, it announced it was seeking to restructure $240 billion in sovereign debt, $40–90 billion more than what external analysts had projected.

For foreign investors who were already hesitant to pour significant resources into the country, the earthquakes provide yet another reason to hold off on inking any deals.

Another key question will be how the quakes impacted Venezuela’s oil infrastructure.

The epicenters were located close to Puerto Cabello, a key oil export terminal.

If it was damaged, Venezuela will lose out on one of its few revenue streams, further complicating any rebuilding process.

Q4: How will this affect U.S. policy in Venezuela?

A4: The United States is currently pursuing a three-phase plan in Venezuela based on stabilization, recovery, and eventual political transition.

There is a chance that the crisis undermines current tentative steps toward the final phase of transition.

Given the herculean task of rebuilding, Rodríguez could argue that discussion of electoral timelines should be set aside for the time being.

The risk is that what starts as even a temporary pause can rapidly become self-reinforcing and suppress discussion around democratization.

It is true that the priority now must be saving lives, but the United States cannot lose sight of the ultimate need for transition as part of Venezuela’s rebuilding process.

In a worst-case scenario, a botched recovery leading to further authoritarian consolidation could worsen ongoing irregular migration dynamics in the region.

The quakes have left tens or hundreds of thousands of survivors without homes and devastated already fragile local economies.

Without help, and soon, these individuals may have no choice but to leave, either becoming internally displaced persons or crossing into neighboring countries, potentially triggering a new wave of Venezuelan outmigration and creating new opportunities for criminal elements who predate on the need of vulnerable populations.

Q5: What are international response efforts looking like?

A5: Venezuela stands to be the most significant test of the Trump administration’s new model for foreign assistance.

While disaster response has long been the bread and butter of U.S. military missions in the Western Hemisphere, reductions to the staffing and resources of the U.S.

Agency for International Development will place an even larger burden on the military to address urgent humanitarian need.

In an interview on Thursday, U.S.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the United States was in the process of deploying search and rescue teams to help clear victims from the rubble.

U.S.

Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) also announced it would be standing up a an operational planning team to coordinate interagency relief efforts.

Most recently, the U.S.

Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Asset Control issued a new general license exempting entities engaged in earthquake relief from the remaining sanctions on Venezuela.

These are welcome moves; the U.S. military is the most qualified and capable force to assist with the immediate disaster response in Venezuela.

While the U.S. naval presence in the Caribbean has diminished from the armada that took shape prior to Operation Absolute Resolve, there are several assets that could be surged to meet urgent humanitarian need.

Indeed, SOUTHCOM has already announced that the USS Fort Lauderdale amphibious transport dock, which has the ability to launch MV-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft, and the USS Billings littoral combat ship, which has the ability to carry Seahawk helicopters, will be dispatched as part of the response effort.

Other airborne first response assets can be brought in from Joint Task Force Bravo based out of Soto Cano Airfield in Honduras.

The earthquake response will also test the mettle of multinational coalitions like the Shield of the Americas.

Already, countries such as Argentina, Chile, and El Salvador have offered to contribute first responders and supplies to help with the disaster response.

A flood of assistance offers has also come from European nations, Brazil, and India, which recently announced plans to set up a field hospital in Venezuela.

The United States has an opportunity to provide the logistical and organizational backbone to ensure these various assistance activities are deployed quickly and to where need is greatest, while helping to deconflict aid efforts among partner countries.

The outpouring of international support for Venezuela has been encouraging, but international aid providers must be prepared for a long-term commitment, not merely a short burst of assistance.

The critical first 24 hours following the disaster have now passed, but the decisions to come will be decisive in determining Venezuela’s trajectory on the road to recovery.

Henry Ziemer is a fellow with the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C.

Joseph Ruelas is an intern with the Americas Program at CSIS.