Faulty reasoning signals

• Negativity Bias - 10%
• Post Hoc (False Cause) - 8.6%
• Appeal to Emotion - 5.9%

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Is the U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Over?

Trump calls continued peace talks a “waste of time” as strikes resume.

An illustration of Alexandra Sharp, World Brief newsletter writer

By Alexandra Sharp , the World Brief writer at Foreign Policy .

U.S. President Donald Trump sits in a chair during a NATO meeting. A U.S. flag is seen behind him.

U.S. President Donald Trump holds a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (not pictured) at the Presidential Complex in Ankara, Turkey, on July 7. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

July 8, 2026, 4:59 PM

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at renewed strikes between U.S. and Iranian forces, the winners and losers of the NATO leaders’ summit, and the United States threatening to cut off trade with Spain .

The U.S.-Iran cease-fire appears to be effectively dead.

Just 21 days after U.S. and Iranian officials signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that halted active fighting, removed the U.S. naval blockade on Iran, and laid the groundwork for future nuclear talks, U.S. President Donald Trump told NATO leaders on Wednesday that the truce deal is done .

“As far as I’m concerned, it’s over,” Trump said, calling the Iranian regime “cuckoo.” Although the U.S. president said that peace talks would continue, he remained skeptical about their probability of success. “They can talk, but I think they’re wasting their time,” Trump said.

On Tuesday, Iranian forces damaged several oil and gas tankers traversing the Strait of Hormuz; these vessels appeared to be trying to use a route that avoided Iranian waters. Within hours, the U.S. military responded with more than 80 strikes on Iranian air defense systems, command and control centers, coastal radar sites, and anti-ship missile capabilities, among other targets.

The United States hit Iran “very hard last night,” Trump said on Wednesday, and will “probably hit them hard again tonight.” Hours later, the U.S. military announced that it had begun “conducting additional strikes against Iran to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.”

Trump also suggested on Wednesday that the United States could reimpose its naval blockade on Iran; more than 20 U.S. Navy warships are on patrol in the Middle East, according to U.S. Central Command. The U.S. president warned that U.S. troops are “not attacking at the highest level” yet but that he could order them to bomb critical civilian infrastructure, such as bridges, electric plants, and desalination facilities. And he threatened to “take over Kharg Island,” a strategically vital island through which roughly 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports flow.

Tehran confirmed on Wednesday that overnight strikes killed at least eight Iranian service members, marking the first military deaths from U.S. attacks that Iran has reported since the June cease-fire went into effect. Iran retaliated by attacking U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait.

Bouts of fighting have threatened the cease-fire before. Late last month, U.S. forces launched strikes on Iran in retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, but the two sides managed to pull back from a return to full-scale war.

This time could be different, though. “I’m not sure I want to make a deal with them,” Trump said on Wednesday, referring to the Iranian regime. “We can play games, but I’m not sure I want to make a deal,” Trump continued. “Let’s just finish the job.”

Such threats have foreign leaders worried. United Nations chief António Guterres called for both countries on Wednesday to immediately de-escalate, arguing that “a return to full-scale hostilities would have catastrophic consequences—for the peoples of the region, for international peace and security, and for the global economy.” Oil prices skyrocketed on Wednesday in the wake of resumed hostilities, with Brent crude climbing more than 5 percent to more than $78 per barrel.

Still, it is unclear to what extent fighting could resume and who will join the conflict. “Obviously, Iran is outside NATO territory,” NATO chief Mark Rutte said on Wednesday. “That doesn’t mean NATO could never get involved.”

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What We’re Following

NATO summit, Day 2. Trump announced on Wednesday that the United States will give Ukraine a license to manufacture Patriot air defense systems. The approval marks a significant victory for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has repeatedly called for more Patriots to help combat Russian missile and drone attacks. “This way, you can’t complain that we’re not giving them enough,” Trump said during a news conference with Zelensky on the sidelines of the NATO summit.

But having a license does not ensure effective air defense capabilities in the short term. Patriots are expensive, complex munitions that will take time to develop before they are ready for use. In the interim, Trump has ruled out giving Ukraine more Patriots, citing a global shortage due to the Iran war. “We have Patriots, but we don’t have that many,” Trump said on Wednesday. “We need them for ourselves too.” Outside of the United States, only Germany and Japan hold licenses to domestically produce Patriots.

Meanwhile, Trump used the NATO summit on Wednesday to revisit demands that the United States should control Greenland. The semiautonomous Danish territory is “very important” for the United States, Trump said, adding, “We need it for protection of the world, not just the United States.” He has previously argued that U.S. control is vital to countering Russian and Chinese influence; however, in January, he backed off on threats to seize the island after Rutte de-escalated tensions.

In response to Trump’s latest comments, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said her country is “ready to defend every inch of NATO, including our own territory” in the event of an attack. She further called on NATO members to honor their mutual defense commitments, suggesting that member countries could go to war with the United States if Washington were to try to seize the island by force.

Cutting off trade. Trump ordered the United States on Wednesday to immediately halt all trade with NATO ally Spain. “We don’t have to trade with them. I don’t want to do any more trade with them,” Trump told U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in front of reporters on Wednesday. “Don’t even talk to them. They’re hopeless, bad people.”

The U.S. president went on to call Spain a “terrible partner” and a “wasted cause,” citing Madrid’s failure to commit to NATO’s minimum defense spending target of 5 percent of GDP by 2035 and its refusal to allow U.S. forces to launch strikes on Iran from Spanish bases. His statement came after Rutte tried to soothe Trump’s ire by stressing that Spain “made a huge step last year” when it raised defense spending to 2 percent, though Rutte acknowledged that “there ​are still issues we have to solve.”

This is the second time that Trump has instructed Bessent to halt all trade with Spain. But as his first such command in March did not actually pause trade, experts suspect that this could also end up being an empty threat. Sure enough, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez appeared to downplay Trump’s threat on Wednesday, saying that he had a “very cordial” conversation with the U.S. president during the NATO summit.

New friendships. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney became the country’s first leader in 26 years to visit Saudi Arabia when he arrived on Wednesday. The historic three-day trip is expected to focus on bolstering foreign investment as Ottawa considers establishing a free trade deal with Riyadh. “I want to get the investment agreement done this year,” Canadian International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu told Bloomberg on Wednesday.

Carney will meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to discuss cooperation in defense, critical minerals, energy, artificial intelligence, and agriculture, among other areas. Unlike former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose repeated criticism of Saudi Arabia’s poor human rights record soured bilateral relations, Carney is hoping to reset diplomatic ties with the Gulf nation.

Riyadh appears to be open to closer friendship. According to Sidhu, Saudi Arabia is “very, very interested” in more collaboration , especially to counter shipping disruptions caused by the Iran war. “The supply chains are being choked off, and they’re looking to Canada as a reliable partner,” Sidhu said, noting that the kingdom is particularly interested in Canadian mining.

Archaeologists have discovered a well-preserved Byzantine-era city in western Egypt’s Dakhla Oasis, the country’s Tourism and Antiquities Ministry announced on Saturday. According to archaeological mission chair Mahmoud Massoud, the unearthed area has evidence of bisecting streets, public squares, two watchtowers, and a basilica from the mid-fourth century. Hints of domestic life, such as bread ovens and local coins, were also discovered at the dig site. The Dakhla Oasis is one of Egypt’s 34 locations on UNESCO’s “tentative list,” making it just steps away from becoming an official World Heritage Site.

This post is part of FP’s ongoing coverage . Read more here .

Alexandra Sharp is the World Brief writer at Foreign Policy . Bluesky: @alexandrassharp.bsky.social X: @AlexandraSSharp

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