Faulty reasoning signals

• Biased Writer Voice - 33%
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In the end, the French state stepped back from the brink. Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s most popular party, will be allowed to run for the presidency after all.

Following an appeal against a conviction for the misappropriation of public funds, Le Pen was yesterday told that, while her conviction remained, she would no longer be ineligible to run for public office. A few hours later, Le Pen confirmed her intention to run as her party’s presidential candidate in 2027 and to take her appeal to France’s highest court, the Court of Cassation.

The original conviction, and the unprecedented sentence it carried, was framed (rightly) by the National Rally leader as an outrage against democracy . In March 2025, Le Pen was found guilty of using EU funds for domestic political campaigning – a practice that is not only common among French politicians but also in the European Parliament more widely. Nevertheless, the court sentenced her to a suspended prison sentence, a fine and five years’ ineligibility from public office. Most incredibly, and in an almost unprecedented fashion, the sentence was applied ‘provisionally’, meaning the ban would apply immediately rather than pending appeal.

There was little secret within French political circles that the conviction, and the almost unique sentence, was a desperate attempt to hold back the tide of France’s right-wing populist revolt.

Yesterday’s verdict rolled back the harshest elements of last year’s sentence. The electoral ban was reduced to four years with 30 months stayed, meaning Le Pen is now eligible to run in the next presidential election. However, the court ruled that she should remain under house arrest and be forced to wear an ankle monitor, with her movements curtailed. It is only because she immediately appealed yesterday’s judgement that the order to wear the tag is suspended until the Court of Cassation delivers its verdict – likely in early 2027.

The French state may have retreated from the most obvious form of democratic match-fixing, but it has instead settled on an almost exquisite act of plausibly deniable sabotage. Le Pen is not technically ineligible to run, so the state can claim it is not hobbling democracy. But she could nevertheless be forced to appear in public wearing an ankle monitor in the final weeks and months of the presidential campaign – making her look more like a common criminal rather than a politician who bent the rules. Many have quoted the words of Anatole France: ‘The republic governs poorly but defends itself well.’

Following the initial verdict, the French elites seem to have panicked that they went too far. They banned Le Pen, only to see her protégé, Jordan Bardella, become even more popular than she had been. Bardella now beats all comers in polls for the presidential election. He is a smart, likeable man and a capable speaker. His relatively humble background – and freedom from the baggage of the Le Pen family name – might have made him a more effective candidate than Le Pen.

In this sense, the latest ruling is almost custom-designed to cause a headache for the National Rally. While there is little sign of a serious split within the National Rally, the emergence of Bardella as a potentially election-winning politician has raised questions about the direction of the party. Bardella is said to be slightly less attached to the interests of pensioners, more openly critical of Russia, and stronger on the identity issues that animate the new generation of the French right. With Le Pen intending to run, will the Bardella wing of the party be disappointed?

However the National Rally chooses to fight the next election, the campaign against France’s populist right is far from over. The conviction itself provides the logic needed for another grand coalition against the ‘far right’ – left, green and centre can unite against the prospect of a ‘criminal’ president. At the same time, Bardella, as an MEP in Brussels, is embroiled in a separate financial witch-hunt. Only last week, police raided party contractors for Bardella’s political group in the European Parliament.

All this goes on as both the French state and the EU are trying to hem in the National Rally’s room for manoeuvre, should it get into power. Brussels is scrambling to pass a new EU budget before the French elections, while key political allies of President Macron are being appointed to the top of major French institutions like the courts, the national bank and the armed forces. The powers of the French president are considerable, but should she win, Marine Le Pen will face a highly motivated and well-resourced deep-state insurgency, determined to frustrate all attempts at reform.

As we head into the presidential election next year, expect to see all kinds of tricks rolled out to stop the National Rally in its tracks.

Jacob Reynolds is a writer based in Brussels and London.

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