Faulty reasoning signals

• Confirmation Bias - 18% (75 hits)
• Anchoring Bias - 8.9% (37 hits)
• Availability Heuristic - 26.6% (111 hits)
• Representativeness Heuristic - 0%
• Hindsight Bias - 0%
• Overconfidence Bias - 0%
• Framing Effect - 18.5% (77 hits)
• Loss Aversion - 12.5% (52 hits)
• Status Quo Bias - 11% (46 hits)
• Sunk Cost Effect - 0%
• Optimism Bias - 14.6% (61 hits)
• Pessimism Bias - 9.4% (39 hits)

Article text

California avocado farmers issue dire warning as Mexican imports surge

California farmers are calling on the Trump administration to adopt a “substantive” seasonal tariff rate on Mexican avocado imports to help save an industry that growers warn is struggling to survive.

“If the trend continues the way it’s going, I mean, we’ve been having some pretty difficult conversations,” said Andy Sheaffer, who owns Vista Punta Gorda farms in Ventura, California.

“It’s really difficult to operate when you have such volatility and then when the volatility shifts to really a negative return.”

Sheaffer, who has been farming for the past 20 years, said prices have recently plummeted for growers due to the influx of avocados from Mexico that have flooded the US market without any real regulation.

“We started out [last year May 2025] over $2 per pound, I think it was $2.20 to $2.30 a pound,” Sheaffer told The California Post, who is now selling those same avocados for $0.75 cents to $1.10.

“It just fell off a cliff in the latter part of the season.”

Ken Melban, president of the California Avocado Commission, told The Post that 10 years ago the state had roughly 6,000 growers, now that number has dropped to about 3,000.

The problem is a multitude of factors including high labor costs and water regulations that make it hard for US growers to compete with Mexico, which currently pays zero tariffs on avocados under the USMCA agreement.

“We’ve elected these politicians who have decided to impose these regulations and these labor cost increases on us because they value that as an important component,” Sheaffer said.

“But then, on the flip side, we’re allowing these countries who don’t have that same value system basically unfettered access to our market.”

“The cost to the consumer won’t go up exorbitantly, just the grocer will not have as high a margin on that particular piece of produce,” Sheaffer told the Post.

US trade representative, Ambassador Jamieson Greer said he will meet with Mexico starting the week of July 20 for a third round of bilateral negations related to the USMCA — in the meantime, the pact remains fully in place as conversations between the three countries continue.

For Melban, he is optimistic that the Trump administration will make an effort to protect American farmers.

I just had a meeting last Tuesday with senior U.S. officials that are all over this,” he said.

“I’m hopeful that we’ll be able to figure something out here that works for everybody.”